Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Lightning at 58%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Lightning have home ice and the Lightning rate higher (1553 to 1525 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Senators
Now 69%
74%
with a win
66%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
Lightning
Now 89%
90%
with a win
88%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Lightning 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -139
- OTT +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- OTT 2.9 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | OTT: Starter not announced · TB: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | TB +63 Elo | TB 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 54.9%3rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.2%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
| 26th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 149225th of 32 |
| 12th of 321525 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Senators
5 listedNick Cousins C
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Linus Ullmark G
Outout
Andre Burakovsky LW
Injured Reserveir
Warren Foegele LW
Injured ReserveFoegele (knee) will miss 3-4 weeks, Jackson Starr of the Senators' official site reports Saturday.
William Eklund LW
Injured ReserveEklund had surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon and will be out 10-12 weeks, Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports Thursday.
Lightning
1 listedBrayden Point C
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–11 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 7–4 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.