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Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast

KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Away

Celtics

9-2

67%

at

Home

Mavericks

7-4

33%

The pick
BOS · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
114–109
Fair odds
-205

Your pick

American Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Celtics at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Celtics rate higher (1650 to 1468 Elo), lineup changes favor the Mavericks and the Celtics are on a back-to-back.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Celtics

Now 100%

100%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Mavericks

Now 17%

19%

with a win

16%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Celtics 67%

Solid
BOS 67%DAL 33%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -2.5
BOS 60%
Fair odds
BOS -205
DAL +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
BOS 114.4 – 108.9 DAL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSDALWhy
Team rating16501468Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—BOS on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−11+38BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel—−12DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsBOS +69 EloBOS 59.8%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 68.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 67.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatDAL
11th of 30115.7Points scored114.914th of 30
2nd of 30104.0Points allowed110.39th of 30
1st of 30+11.7Margin+4.612th of 30
3rd of 30117.5Offense rating113.311th of 30
6th of 30105.5Defense rating108.810th of 30
29th of 3097.7Pace100.820th of 30
1st of 289–1Last 107–35th of 28
7th of 304–2Road vs home5–27th of 30
26th of 301468Opponent Elo149319th of 30
4th of 301650Elo rating146820th of 30
16th of 30+0.4Offense, adjusted+0.812th of 30
2nd of 30+5.5Defense, adjusted−0.918th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Celtics

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jayson Tatum3128.8Available
Paul George2821.2Available
Derrick White2721.8Available
Payton Pritchard2622.9Available
Neemias Queta2124.0Available
Sam Hauser2018.9Available
Baylor Scheierman1916.6Available
Mitchell Robinson1720.5Available
Jordan Walsh1515.4Available
Hugo Gonzalez1416.7Available
Luka Garza1222.5Available

Mavericks

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cooper Flagg3322.5Available
P.J. Washington3115.2Available
Kyrie Irving3125.2Available
Naji Marshall2117.5Available
Daniel Gafford2021.6Available
Santi Aldama2018.9Available
Walter Clayton Jr.1914.3Available
Zaccharie Risacher1815.7Available
Caleb Martin1711.6Available
Max Christie1312.4Available
Morez Johnson Jr.918.5Day-To-Day−2
Marcus Sasser516.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsMavericks
13001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Celtics

Nothing on the injury report.

Mavericks

4 listed

  • Morez Johnson Jr. F

    Day-To-Day

    Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.

  • Sergio de Larrea F

    Out

    De Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.

  • Tarik Biberovic F

    Out

    Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.

  • Dereck Lively II C

    Out

    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSDAL
Against the spread5–57–3
Last 105–57–3
Favorite5–42–1
Underdog0–15–2
Overs–unders5–52–8
Overs–unders, last 105–52–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 9–2 DAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.