New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
- The pick
- POR · Strong
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 113–120
- Fair odds
- -248
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Trail Blazers at 71%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Trail Blazers rate higher (1524 to 1421 Elo), the Trail Blazers have home court and lineup changes favor the Trail Blazers.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Pelicans
Now 2%
3%
with a win
2%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Trail Blazers
Now 67%
68%
with a win
63%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Trail Blazers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -6
- POR 72%
- Fair odds
- POR -248
- NO +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NO 113.1 – 120.0 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +44 | NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | POR +167 Elo | POR 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.4 | Points allowed | 112.713th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−4.9 | Margin | +7.010th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 117.24th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 110.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.7 | Pace | 102.09th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 28th of 301461 | Opponent Elo | 15209th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301421 | Elo rating | 152412th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Offense, adjusted | +1.68th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−4.7 | Defense, adjusted | +1.310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Pelicans
+16 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 31 | 26.3 | Available |
| Jeremiah Fears | 30 | 16.8 | Available |
| Dejounte Murray | 28 | 19.6 | Available |
| Saddiq Bey | 26 | 18.5 | Available |
| Herbert Jones | 22 | 13.8 | Available |
| Derik Queen | 20 | 17.2 | Available |
| Trey Murphy III | 19 | 19.7 | Day-To-Day−7 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 18 | 17.5 | Available |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 15 | 17.3 | Available |
| Jordan Poole | 12 | 15.0 | Available |
| Bryce McGowens | 10 | 13.0 | Available |
| Julian Reese | 5 | 15.4 | Available |
Trail Blazers
+44 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 32 | 23.1 | Available |
| Toumani Camara | 28 | 15.0 | Available |
| Damian Lillard | 27 | 25.7 | Available |
| Jrue Holiday | 26 | 20.6 | Available |
| Donovan Clingan | 25 | 21.8 | Available |
| Scoot Henderson | 23 | 14.7 | Available |
| Sidy Cissoko | 22 | 12.9 | Available |
| Robert Williams III | 16 | 22.8 | Available |
| Chris Youngblood | 13 | 17.1 | Available |
| Yang Hansen | 8 | 13.1 | Available |
| Branden Carlson | 7 | 18.8 | Available |
| Micah Potter | 6 | 15.7 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Pelicans
3 listedTrendon Watford F
OutWatford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Trey Murphy III F
Day-To-DayMurphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Yves Missi C
OutMissi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.
Trail Blazers
3 listedJa Morant G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.
Vit Krejci G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Shaedon Sharpe G
OutSharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 5–6 POR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 2NO 106 @ POR 118Picked POR 68%Hit
- Jan 2POR 122 @ NO 109Picked POR 59%Hit
- Dec 11POR 120 @ NO 143Picked POR 60%Miss
- Nov 12POR 125 @ NO 117Picked POR 75%Hit
- Jan 8POR 119 @ NO 100Picked NO 53%Miss
- Nov 4POR 118 @ NO 100Picked NO 50%Miss
- Oct 27NO 103 @ POR 125Picked NO 69%Miss
- Oct 25NO 105 @ POR 103Picked NO 70%Hit