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Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast

Away

Magic

3-7

21%

at

Home

Pistons

7-3

79%

The pick
DET · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
105–115
Fair odds
-371

Your pick

Little Caesars Arena

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 79%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1476 Elo), the Magic are on a back-to-back and the Pistons have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Magic

Now 43%

48%

with a win

42%

with a loss

This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.

Pistons

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Pistons 79%

Strong
ORL 21%DET 79%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DET 79%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET -8
DET 79%
Fair odds
DET -371
ORL +371 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ORL 104.6 – 114.5 DET
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorORLDETWhy
Team rating14761612Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—ORL on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−36−21ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −29, Jalen Suggs −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDET +227 EloDET 78.7%
Market-implied ratingsDET 78.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDET 78.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons compared, with each team's league rank
ORLStatDET
26th of 30107.0Points scored112.717th of 30
18th of 30114.6Points allowed104.63rd of 30
24th of 30−7.6Margin+8.17th of 30
25th of 30105.8Offense rating112.315th of 30
22nd of 30113.3Defense rating104.22nd of 30
25th of 30100.2Pace100.224th of 30
12th of 303–3Road vs home3–212th of 30
7th of 301523Opponent Elo150517th of 30
19th of 301476Elo rating16127th of 30
26th of 30−2.3Offense, adjusted−0.218th of 30
14th of 30+0.4Defense, adjusted+4.73rd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Magic

−36 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Franz Wagner3723.5Available
Desmond Bane3520.4Available
Wendell Carter Jr.3417.2Available
Anthony Black3116.1Available
Jamal Cain2213.5Available
Jase Richardson2114.8Available
Tristan da Silva1814.8Day-To-Day
Alex Morales1316.7Available
Nikola Vucevic1120.5Available
Goga Bitadze819.7Available
Jevon Carter714.2Available
Paolo Banchero—22.6Out−29

Pistons

−21 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cade Cunningham3326.8Available
Duncan Robinson3119.2Available
Daniss Jenkins2819.4Available
Ausar Thompson2720.2Available
John Collins2619.0Available
Kevin Huerter2517.8Available
Paul Reed2423.7Available
Javonte Green1518.0Available
Ronald Holland II1516.2Available
Elijah Harkless814.9Available
Jalen Duren—26.6Out−32
Isaiah Joe—21.5Out−5

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MagicPistons
1400145015001550160016501700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Magic

6 listed

  • Tristan da Silva F

    Day-To-Day

    Da Silva (calf) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Jalen Suggs G

    Out

    Suggs (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings.

  • Jonathan Isaac F

    Out

    Isaac (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against Sacramento.

  • Paolo Banchero F

    Out

    Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Noah Penda F

    Out

    Penda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Izaiyah Nelson F

    Out

    Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.

Pistons

2 listed

  • Isaiah Joe G

    Out

    Joe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.

  • Jalen Duren C

    Out

    Duren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonORLDET
Against the spread2–56–3
Last 102–56–3
Favorite1–35–2
Underdog1–21–1
Overs–unders3–46–3
Overs–unders, last 103–46–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ORL 11–7 DET in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.