Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Cavaliers at 56%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Cavaliers rate higher (1548 to 1460 Elo), lineup changes favor the Heat and the Cavaliers have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Heat
Now 70%
73%
with a win
67%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Cavaliers
Now 93%
94%
with a win
91%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Cavaliers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 61%
- Fair odds
- CLE -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIA 116.8 – 118.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −17 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +79 Elo | CLE 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 115.019th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−4.3 | Margin | +1.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 113.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 111.815th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Pace | 102.010th of 30 |
| 14th of 285–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 28 |
| 11th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 151513th of 30 |
| 21st of 301460 | Elo rating | 154810th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.5 | Offense, adjusted | +2.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−3.7 | Defense, adjusted | −0.516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Heat
+28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 35 | 16.4 | Available |
| Bam Adebayo | 33 | 24.0 | Available |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | 35.0 | Available |
| Pelle Larsson | 28 | 16.9 | Available |
| Klay Thompson | 26 | 15.9 | Available |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 17.4 | Available |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Ryan Conwell | 16 | 16.9 | Available |
| Keshad Johnson | 10 | 20.4 | Available |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8 | 16.4 | Available |
Cavaliers
−17 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 31 | 28.1 | Available |
| James Harden | 31 | 23.2 | Available |
| Evan Mobley | 30 | 24.4 | Available |
| Peyton Watson | 25 | 16.5 | Available |
| Meleek Thomas | 22 | 17.9 | Available |
| Jarrett Allen | 22 | 26.0 | Available |
| Mario Hezonja | 20 | 17.4 | Available |
| Tyrese Proctor | 19 | 17.5 | Available |
| Thomas Bryant | 11 | 18.9 | Available |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 11 | 17.2 | Available |
| Riley Minix | 7 | 18.9 | Available |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. | 5 | 17.9 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Heat
Nothing on the injury report.
Cavaliers
2 listedSam Merrill G
OutMerrill (elbow) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against the Knicks.
Jaylon Tyson G
OutTyson (ankle) is questionable to face the Knicks on Wednesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–9 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–9 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
- Mar 27MIA 128 @ CLE 149Picked CLE 66%Hit
- Mar 25MIA 120 @ CLE 103Picked CLE 57%Miss
- Nov 12CLE 130 @ MIA 116Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 10CLE 138 @ MIA 140Picked CLE 72%Miss
- Apr 28CLE 138 @ MIA 83PlayoffsPicked CLE 74%Hit
- Apr 26CLE 124 @ MIA 87PlayoffsPicked CLE 64%Hit
- Apr 23MIA 112 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Apr 20MIA 100 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit