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Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast

Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Away

Suns

4-6

67%

at

Home

Jazz

1-10

33%

The pick
PHX · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
117–112
Fair odds
-207

Your pick

Delta Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Suns at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Suns rate higher (1491 to 1309 Elo) and the Jazz have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Suns

Now 33%

34%

with a win

31%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Jazz

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Suns 67%

Solid
PHX 67%UTAH 33%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHX 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHX -5
PHX 69%
Fair odds
PHX -207
UTAH +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHX 117.2 – 111.6 UTAH
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHXUTAHWhy
Team rating14911309Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−10−2PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 · UTAH: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −23, Lauri Markkanen (40% to sit) −15, Jusuf Nurkic −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPHX +138 EloPHX 68.8%
Market-implied ratingsPHX 67.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHX 67.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz compared, with each team's league rank
PHXStatUTAH
16th of 30112.8Points scored106.528th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed117.623rd of 30
22nd of 30−5.3Margin−11.226th of 30
16th of 30111.9Offense rating102.529th of 30
27th of 30117.2Defense rating113.321st of 30
23rd of 30100.5Pace102.011th of 30
27th of 300–3Road vs home1–525th of 30
1st of 301559Opponent Elo15266th of 30
17th of 301491Elo rating130930th of 30
20th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted−2.225th of 30
17th of 30−0.7Defense, adjusted−4.027th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Suns

−10 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Devin Booker3124.0Available
Dillon Brooks2715.8Available
Miles Bridges2519.7Available
Jalen Green2518.4Available
Collin Gillespie2217.7Available
Oso Ighodaro2015.9Available
Ryan Dunn1914.4Available
Khaman Maluach1817.4Available
Luke Kennard1716.9Available
Jordan Goodwin1617.3Available
Pat Spencer615.7Available
Rasheer Fleming416.8Available

Jazz

−2 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Ace Bailey3213.1Available
Darryn Peterson3016.5Available
Jaxson Hayes2318.3Available
Josh Green2212.4Available
Josh Okogie2013.6Available
Keyonte George1917.1Day-To-Day−3
Lauri Markkanen1922.0Day-To-Day−15
Isaiah Collier1713.7Available
Svi Mykhailiuk1413.9Available
Brice Sensabaugh1415.1Available
Mo Bamba1315.9Available
Kyle Filipowski1016.7Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SunsJazz
12001300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Suns

1 listed

  • Mark Williams C

    Out

    Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Jazz

4 listed

  • Keyonte George G

    Day-To-Day

    George (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.

  • Lauri Markkanen F

    Day-To-Day

    Markkanen is out for Tuesday's game versus the Heat with a right wrist sprain.

  • Jusuf Nurkic C

    Out

    Nurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.

  • Jaren Jackson Jr. F

    Out

    Jackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHXUTAH
Against the spread2–72–8
Last 102–72–8
Favorite2–10–1
Underdog0–62–7
Overs–unders6–31–9
Overs–unders, last 106–31–9

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHX 10–1 UTAH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.