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Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast

Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, GCSEN, Pelicans.com

Away

Suns

4-6

50%

at

Home

Pelicans

4-7

50%

The pick
NO · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
116–117
Fair odds
-102

Your pick

Smoothie King Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, GCSEN, Pelicans.com

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Pelicans 50%). It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Suns rate higher (1491 to 1421 Elo), the Pelicans have home court and lineup changes favor the Pelicans.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Suns

Now 33%

36%

with a win

30%

with a loss

This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.

Pelicans

Now 2%

3%

with a win

2%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Pelicans 50%

Toss-up
PHX 50%NO 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
NO 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
Pick ’em
NO 51%
Fair odds
NO -102
PHX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHX 116.4 – 116.6 NO
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHXNOWhy
Team rating14911421Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−10+16PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12—PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsNO +5 EloNO 50.7%
Market-implied ratingsNO 50.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNO 50.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans compared, with each team's league rank
PHXStatNO
16th of 30112.8Points scored117.58th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed122.429th of 30
22nd of 30−5.3Margin−4.920th of 30
16th of 30111.9Offense rating111.217th of 30
27th of 30117.2Defense rating115.826th of 30
23rd of 30100.5Pace102.75th of 30
27th of 300–3Road vs home3–314th of 30
1st of 301559Opponent Elo146128th of 30
17th of 301491Elo rating142123rd of 30
20th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted+1.310th of 30
17th of 30−0.7Defense, adjusted−4.729th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Suns

−10 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Devin Booker3124.0Available
Dillon Brooks2715.8Available
Miles Bridges2519.7Available
Jalen Green2518.4Available
Collin Gillespie2217.7Available
Oso Ighodaro2015.9Available
Ryan Dunn1914.4Available
Khaman Maluach1817.4Available
Luke Kennard1716.9Available
Jordan Goodwin1617.3Available
Pat Spencer615.7Available
Rasheer Fleming416.8Available

Pelicans

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Zion Williamson3126.3Available
Jeremiah Fears3016.8Available
Dejounte Murray2819.6Available
Saddiq Bey2618.5Available
Herbert Jones2213.8Available
Derik Queen2017.2Available
Trey Murphy III1919.7Day-To-Day−7
Karlo Matkovic1817.5Available
Bennedict Mathurin1517.3Available
Jordan Poole1215.0Available
Bryce McGowens1013.0Available
Julian Reese515.4Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SunsPelicans
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Suns

1 listed

  • Mark Williams C

    Out

    Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Pelicans

3 listed

  • Trendon Watford F

    Out

    Watford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Trey Murphy III F

    Day-To-Day

    Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Yves Missi C

    Out

    Missi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHXNO
Against the spread2–76–3
Last 102–76–3
Favorite2–11–1
Underdog0–65–2
Overs–unders6–35–4
Overs–unders, last 106–35–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHX 7–3 NO in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.