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Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast

Away

Pistons

7-3

54%

at

Home

Hawks

7-5

46%

The pick
DET · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
114–112
Fair odds
-120

Your pick

State Farm Arena

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 54%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1522 Elo) and the Hawks have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pistons

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Hawks

Now 92%

94%

with a win

91%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Pistons 54%

Toss-up
DET 54%ATL 46%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DET 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET -1.5
DET 56%
Fair odds
DET -120
ATL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DET 113.5 – 112.2 ATL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDETATLWhy
Team rating16121522Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−21−11DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDET +44 EloDET 56.3%
Market-implied ratingsDET 54.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDET 54.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks compared, with each team's league rank
DETStatATL
17th of 30112.7Points scored118.35th of 30
3rd of 30104.6Points allowed116.222nd of 30
7th of 30+8.1Margin+2.114th of 30
15th of 30112.3Offense rating112.614th of 30
2nd of 30104.2Defense rating110.714th of 30
24th of 30100.2Pace104.92nd of 30
6th of 304–1Road vs home3–314th of 30
17th of 301505Opponent Elo146627th of 30
7th of 301612Elo rating152213th of 30
18th of 30−0.2Offense, adjusted+2.34th of 30
3rd of 30+4.7Defense, adjusted−1.621st of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pistons

−21 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cade Cunningham3326.8Available
Duncan Robinson3119.2Available
Daniss Jenkins2819.4Available
Ausar Thompson2720.2Available
John Collins2619.0Available
Kevin Huerter2517.8Available
Paul Reed2423.7Available
Javonte Green1518.0Available
Ronald Holland II1516.2Available
Elijah Harkless814.9Available
Jalen Duren—26.6Out−32
Isaiah Joe—21.5Out−5

Hawks

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Johnson3123.3Available
Nickeil Alexander-Walker2920.3Available
Dyson Daniels2820.5Available
Onyeka Okongwu2820.7Available
Aaron Wiggins2219.3Available
CJ McCollum2220.1Available
Luguentz Dort2214.2Available
Kingston Flemings2117.1Available
Jalen Wilson1211.6Available
Jock Landale918.8Available
Zuby Ejiofor618.4Available
RayJ Dennis516.0Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PistonsHawks
1400145015001550160016501700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pistons

2 listed

  • Isaiah Joe G

    Out

    Joe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.

  • Jalen Duren C

    Out

    Duren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.

Hawks

4 listed

  • Asa Newell F

    Out

    Newell (toe) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Keshon Gilbert G

    Out

    Gilbert (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Mouhamed Gueye F

    Out

    Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.

  • Henri Veesaar C

    Out

    Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDETATL
Against the spread6–33–5
Last 106–33–5
Favorite5–22–3
Underdog1–11–2
Overs–unders6–34–4
Overs–unders, last 106–34–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DET 6–5 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.