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New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast

DAZN SAS, GCSEN, Pelicans.com

Away

Pelicans

4-7

13%

at

Home

Spurs

9-2

87%

The pick
SA · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
108–123
Fair odds
-690

Your pick

Frost Bank Center · DAZN SAS, GCSEN, Pelicans.com

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Spurs at 87%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1421 Elo), the Pelicans are on a back-to-back and the Spurs have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pelicans

Now 2%

3%

with a win

2%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Spurs

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Spurs 87%

Strong
NO 13%SA 87%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
SA 87%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SA -11
SA 86%
Fair odds
SA -690
NO +690 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
NO 108.1 – 122.8 SA
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNOSAWhy
Team rating14211670Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—NO on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+160NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsSA +309 EloSA 85.5%
Market-implied ratingsSA 87.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSA 87.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs compared, with each team's league rank
NOStatSA
8th of 30117.5Points scored118.74th of 30
29th of 30122.4Points allowed107.06th of 30
20th of 30−4.9Margin+11.71st of 30
17th of 30111.2Offense rating116.65th of 30
26th of 30115.8Defense rating105.14th of 30
5th of 30102.7Pace101.018th of 30
18th of 284–6Last 109–11st of 28
22nd of 301–4Road vs home4–28th of 30
28th of 301461Opponent Elo147025th of 30
23rd of 301421Elo rating16701st of 30
10th of 30+1.3Offense, adjusted+2.92nd of 30
29th of 30−4.7Defense, adjusted+4.75th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pelicans

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Zion Williamson3126.3Available
Jeremiah Fears3016.8Available
Dejounte Murray2819.6Available
Saddiq Bey2618.5Available
Herbert Jones2213.8Available
Derik Queen2017.2Available
Trey Murphy III1919.7Day-To-Day−7
Karlo Matkovic1817.5Available
Bennedict Mathurin1517.3Available
Jordan Poole1215.0Available
Bryce McGowens1013.0Available
Julian Reese515.4Available

Spurs

0 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Dylan Harper2924.1Available
Stephon Castle2822.0Available
De'Aaron Fox2724.0Available
Victor Wembanyama2735.5Available
Keldon Johnson2419.7Available
Julian Champagnie2419.1Available
Devin Vassell1719.6Day-To-Day
Harrison Barnes1517.8Available
Luke Kornet1419.8Available
Carter Bryant1014.2Available
Jordan McLaughlin717.2Available
Maliq Brown617.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PelicansSpurs
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pelicans

3 listed

  • Trendon Watford F

    Out

    Watford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Trey Murphy III F

    Day-To-Day

    Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Yves Missi C

    Out

    Missi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.

Spurs

3 listed

  • Devin Vassell G

    Day-To-Day

    Vassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.

  • Tobias Harris F

    Out

    Harris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.

  • Jayden Quaintance F

    Out

    Quaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNOSA
Against the spread6–35–6
Last 106–35–5
Favorite1–15–6
Underdog5–2—
Overs–unders5–43–8
Overs–unders, last 105–43–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NO 6–6 SA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.