Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

DAZN MIN, DAZN MEM

Away

Grizzlies

7-3

33%

at

Home

Timberwolves

8-3

67%

The pick
MIN · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
111–117
Fair odds
-199

Your pick

Target Center · DAZN MIN, DAZN MEM

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Timberwolves at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Timberwolves rate higher (1638 to 1443 Elo), lineup changes favor the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Grizzlies

Now 7%

8%

with a win

7%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Timberwolves

Now 97%

97%

with a win

96%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Timberwolves 67%

Solid
MEM 33%MIN 67%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -4.5
MIN 68%
Fair odds
MIN -199
MEM +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MEM 111.3 – 116.5 MIN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMEMMINWhy
Team rating14431638Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+65−33MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −3, Richie Saunders −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsMIN +132 EloMIN 68.1%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 66.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 66.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
MEMStatMIN
7th of 30117.9Points scored118.16th of 30
11th of 30110.8Points allowed107.06th of 30
9th of 30+7.1Margin+11.13rd of 30
7th of 30114.9Offense rating114.88th of 30
9th of 30108.0Defense rating104.01st of 30
15th of 30101.4Pace101.713th of 30
1st of 305–0Road vs home4–16th of 30
30th of 301437Opponent Elo149221st of 30
22nd of 301443Elo rating16385th of 30
15th of 30+0.6Offense, adjusted+1.59th of 30
22nd of 30−2.0Defense, adjusted+3.07th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Grizzlies

+65 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cameron Boozer3018.6Available
Ty Jerome2926.7Available
Cedric Coward2620.2Available
Jaylen Wells2515.5Available
Jerami Grant2216.5Available
Zach Edey2122.1Available
Javon Small2117.5Available
Cam Spencer1920.1Available
GG Jackson1216.6Available
Isaiah Stewart917.6Day-To-Day
Kris Murray913.0Available
Taylor Hendricks713.2Available

Timberwolves

−33 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jaden McDaniels3417.8Available
Ayo Dosunmu3218.5Available
Jonathan Kuminga2919.8Available
LaMelo Ball2925.7Available
Rudy Gobert2820.4Available
Trey Lyles2116.5Available
Terrence Shannon Jr.2016.0Available
Jaylen Clark1715.9Available
Joan Beringer1420.5Available
Bones Hyland1118.7Available
Anthony Edwards—26.1Out−40
Donte DiVincenzo—18.3Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

GrizzliesTimberwolves
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Grizzlies

4 listed

  • Isaiah Stewart C

    Day-To-Day

    Stewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Nuggets.

  • Scotty Pippen Jr. G

    Out

    Pippen (back) remains out for Wednesday's game against Denver, Michael Wallace of the Grizzlies' official site reports.

  • Quinten Post C

    Out

    Post (concussion) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.

  • Richie Saunders G

    Out

    Saunders signed a two-way contract with the Grizzlies on Saturday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Timberwolves

2 listed

  • Anthony Edwards G

    Out

    Edwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.

  • Donte DiVincenzo G

    Out

    DiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMEMMIN
Against the spread5–39–1
Last 105–39–1
Favorite3–24–1
Underdog2–15–0
Overs–unders2–65–5
Overs–unders, last 102–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MEM 4–7 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.