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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast

DAZN MEM

Away

Warriors

8-3

57%

at

Home

Grizzlies

7-3

43%

The pick
GS · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
116–114
Fair odds
-135

Your pick

FedExForum · DAZN MEM

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Warriors at 57%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Warriors rate higher (1550 to 1443 Elo), the Grizzlies have home court and lineup changes favor the Grizzlies.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Warriors

Now 84%

85%

with a win

82%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Grizzlies

Now 7%

9%

with a win

6%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Warriors 57%

Lean
GS 57%MEM 43%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
GS 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
GS -1.5
GS 56%
Fair odds
GS -135
MEM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
GS 116.5 – 114.2 MEM
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorGSMEMWhy
Team rating15501443Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40−40MEM and GS on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+37+65GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44, Kristaps Porzingis −31, Brandon Williams −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −3, Richie Saunders −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsGS +42 EloGS 56.0%
Market-implied ratingsGS 57.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastGS 57.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies compared, with each team's league rank
GSStatMEM
2nd of 30120.4Points scored117.97th of 30
12th of 30111.2Points allowed110.811th of 30
4th of 30+9.2Margin+7.19th of 30
2nd of 30118.3Offense rating114.97th of 30
11th of 30109.3Defense rating108.09th of 30
21st of 30100.8Pace101.415th of 30
12th of 302–2Road vs home2–321st of 30
11th of 301518Opponent Elo143730th of 30
9th of 301550Elo rating144322nd of 30
5th of 30+2.1Offense, adjusted+0.615th of 30
13th of 30+0.6Defense, adjusted−2.022nd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Warriors

+37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Brandin Podziemski3220.0Available
Yaxel Lendeborg3020.8Available
Stephen Curry2929.4Available
Draymond Green2714.9Available
De'Anthony Melton2319.3Available
Georges Niang2216.4Available
Gui Santos1918.4Available
Al Horford1819.0Available
Charles Bassey1618.9Available
Graham Ike918.4Available
LJ Cryer817.0Available
Malevy Leons614.6Available

Grizzlies

+65 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cameron Boozer3018.6Available
Ty Jerome2926.7Available
Cedric Coward2620.2Available
Jaylen Wells2515.5Available
Jerami Grant2216.5Available
Zach Edey2122.1Available
Javon Small2117.5Available
Cam Spencer1920.1Available
GG Jackson1216.6Available
Isaiah Stewart917.6Day-To-Day
Kris Murray913.0Available
Taylor Hendricks713.2Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WarriorsGrizzlies
1300135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Warriors

6 listed

  • Gary Payton II G

    Out

    Payton (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Will Richard G

    Out

    Richard (thumb) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Brandon Williams G

    Out

    Williams (hamstring) will miss at least one week, per Anthony Slater of ESPN.com.

  • Kristaps Porzingis C

    Out

    Porzingis announced on his social media that he's stepping away from basketball.

  • Moses Moody G

    Out

    Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

  • Jimmy Butler III F

    Out

    Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

Grizzlies

4 listed

  • Isaiah Stewart C

    Day-To-Day

    Stewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Nuggets.

  • Scotty Pippen Jr. G

    Out

    Pippen (back) remains out for Wednesday's game against Denver, Michael Wallace of the Grizzlies' official site reports.

  • Quinten Post C

    Out

    Post (concussion) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.

  • Richie Saunders G

    Out

    Saunders signed a two-way contract with the Grizzlies on Saturday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonGSMEM
Against the spread6–25–3
Last 106–25–3
Favorite2–13–2
Underdog4–12–1
Overs–unders4–42–6
Overs–unders, last 104–42–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

GS 8–3 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.