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Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast

MNMT

Away

Wizards

4-7

40%

at

Home

Raptors

5-5

60%

The pick
TOR · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
112–115
Fair odds
-150

Your pick

Scotiabank Arena · MNMT

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Raptors at 60%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Raptors rate higher (1521 to 1326 Elo), lineup changes favor the Wizards and the Raptors are on a back-to-back.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Wizards

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Raptors

Now 77%

78%

with a win

75%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Raptors 60%

Lean
WSH 40%TOR 60%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
TOR 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR -2
TOR 59%
Fair odds
TOR -150
WSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
WSH 112.3 – 115.3 TOR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHTORWhy
Team rating13261521Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40TOR on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+70−60WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −65, Scottie Barnes −33, Immanuel Quickley (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsTOR +60 EloTOR 58.5%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 60.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 60.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatTOR
25th of 30108.1Points scored116.69th of 30
16th of 30113.4Points allowed113.315th of 30
21st of 30−5.3Margin+3.313th of 30
23rd of 30106.7Offense rating113.312th of 30
16th of 30111.9Defense rating110.112th of 30
19th of 30101.0Pace102.84th of 30
20th of 302–5Road vs home2–214th of 30
16th of 301506Opponent Elo147523rd of 30
29th of 301326Elo rating152114th of 30
24th of 30−2.0Offense, adjusted+0.613th of 30
24th of 30−3.1Defense, adjusted+0.811th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Wizards

+70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Trae Young3223.3Available
Kyshawn George3213.3Available
Anthony Davis3128.0Available
AJ Dybantsa2817.1Available
Alex Sarr2415.4Available
Bilal Coulibaly2310.8Available
Tre Johnson2211.8Available
Bub Carrington189.3Available
Deandre Ayton1418.5Available
Will Riley712.2Available
Jamir Watkins—14.4Out
Justin Champagnie—16.8Out

Raptors

−60 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
RJ Barrett3521.3Available
Ja'Kobe Walter3114.8Available
Jamal Shead2815.1Available
Jakob Poeltl2421.0Available
Malachi Smith2415.6Available
Jamison Battle2115.1Available
Immanuel Quickley1921.4Day-To-Day−9
Collin Murray-Boyles1520.2Day-To-Day−4
Alijah Martin1518.0Available
Allen Graves1318.5Available
Kyle Anderson716.2Available
Jaden Bradley518.6Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WizardsRaptors
12001300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Wizards

4 listed

  • Tristan Vukcevic F

    Out

    Vukcevic (hip) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Detroit.

  • Reece Beekman G

    Out

    The Wizards announced Monday that Beekman sustained a right acromioclavicular joint injury and will be re-evaluated in approximately three weeks.

  • Justin Champagnie F

    Out

    Champagnie (foot) is expected to miss several months, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.

  • Jamir Watkins G

    Out

    The Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.

Raptors

6 listed

  • Trayce Jackson-Davis F

    Day-To-Day

    Jackson-Davis is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston with an illness.

  • Collin Murray-Boyles F

    Day-To-Day

    Murray-Boyles (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Immanuel Quickley G

    Day-To-Day

    Quickley (hamstring) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston.

  • Scottie Barnes F

    Out

    Barnes (groin) is out for Wednesday's game against Boston.

  • Kawhi Leonard F

    Out

    Leonard (knee) is continuing the reconditioning process, and another update will be provided in one week, Blake Murphy of Sportsnet.ca reports.

  • Nate Bittle C

    Out

    Bittle (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against Memphis.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHTOR
Against the spread5–45–3
Last 105–45–3
Favorite1–05–2
Underdog4–40–1
Overs–unders2–74–4
Overs–unders, last 102–74–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 3–9 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.