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Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

KUNP 16, BlazerVision, DAZN MIN

Away

Trail Blazers

7-3

40%

at

Home

Timberwolves

8-3

60%

The pick
MIN · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
111–114
Fair odds
-152

Your pick

Target Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision, DAZN MIN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Timberwolves at 60%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Timberwolves rate higher (1638 to 1524 Elo), lineup changes favor the Trail Blazers and the Timberwolves have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Trail Blazers

Now 67%

70%

with a win

65%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

Timberwolves

Now 97%

98%

with a win

96%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Timberwolves 60%

Lean
POR 40%MIN 60%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -3.5
MIN 64%
Fair odds
MIN -152
POR +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
POR 111.2 – 114.4 MIN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPORMINWhy
Team rating15241638Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+44−33POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−24—POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsMIN +97 EloMIN 63.6%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 59.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 60.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
PORStatMIN
3rd of 30119.7Points scored118.16th of 30
13th of 30112.7Points allowed107.06th of 30
10th of 30+7.0Margin+11.13rd of 30
4th of 30117.2Offense rating114.88th of 30
13th of 30110.4Defense rating104.01st of 30
9th of 30102.0Pace101.713th of 30
3rd of 305–1Road vs home4–16th of 30
9th of 301520Opponent Elo149221st of 30
12th of 301524Elo rating16385th of 30
8th of 30+1.6Offense, adjusted+1.59th of 30
10th of 30+1.3Defense, adjusted+3.07th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Trail Blazers

+44 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Deni Avdija3223.1Available
Toumani Camara2815.0Available
Damian Lillard2725.7Available
Jrue Holiday2620.6Available
Donovan Clingan2521.8Available
Scoot Henderson2314.7Available
Sidy Cissoko2212.9Available
Robert Williams III1622.8Available
Chris Youngblood1317.1Available
Yang Hansen813.1Available
Branden Carlson718.8Available
Micah Potter615.7Available

Timberwolves

−33 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jaden McDaniels3417.8Available
Ayo Dosunmu3218.5Available
Jonathan Kuminga2919.8Available
LaMelo Ball2925.7Available
Rudy Gobert2820.4Available
Trey Lyles2116.5Available
Terrence Shannon Jr.2016.0Available
Jaylen Clark1715.9Available
Joan Beringer1420.5Available
Bones Hyland1118.7Available
Anthony Edwards—26.1Out−40
Donte DiVincenzo—18.3Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Trail BlazersTimberwolves
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Trail Blazers

3 listed

  • Ja Morant G

    Out

    Head coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.

  • Vit Krejci G

    Out

    Head coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Shaedon Sharpe G

    Out

    Sharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Timberwolves

2 listed

  • Anthony Edwards G

    Out

    Edwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.

  • Donte DiVincenzo G

    Out

    DiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPORMIN
Against the spread6–39–1
Last 106–39–1
Favorite3–14–1
Underdog3–25–0
Overs–unders4–55–5
Overs–unders, last 104–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

POR 3–9 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.