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Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast

KSBI, Thunder App

Away

Thunder

8-3

82%

at

Home

Kings

1-10

18%

The pick
OKC · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
118–106
Fair odds
-454

Your pick

Golden 1 Center · KSBI, Thunder App

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Thunder at 82%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Thunder rate higher (1657 to 1352 Elo), lineup changes favor the Kings and the Kings have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Thunder

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Kings

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Thunder 82%

Strong
OKC 82%SAC 18%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
OKC 82%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -6
OKC 73%
Fair odds
OKC -454
SAC +454 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
OKC 117.7 – 106.2 SAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOKCSACWhy
Team rating16571352Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−80+18OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −39, Jalen Williams −31, Jaylin Williams −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsOKC +171 EloOKC 72.8%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 82.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 81.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings compared, with each team's league rank
OKCStatSAC
20th of 30111.4Points scored108.324th of 30
4th of 30105.9Points allowed121.027th of 30
11th of 30+5.5Margin−12.728th of 30
18th of 30110.5Offense rating106.024th of 30
5th of 30105.1Defense rating118.428th of 30
22nd of 30100.6Pace102.26th of 30
5th of 287–3Last 101–926th of 28
12th of 303–3Road vs home0–627th of 30
14th of 301514Opponent Elo151712th of 30
3rd of 301657Elo rating135227th of 30
14th of 30+0.6Offense, adjusted−2.727th of 30
4th of 30+4.7Defense, adjusted−4.028th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Thunder

−80 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander3136.4Available
Ajay Mitchell2824.4Available
Jared McCain2717.9Available
Isaiah Hartenstein2423.7Available
Aday Mara2318.6Available
Bennett Stirtz2117.9Available
Kenrich Williams2117.8Available
Micah Peavy2012.8Available
Alex Caruso1822.1Available
Josh Dix1316.4Available
Nique Clifford1011.9Available
Brooks Barnhizer513.5Available

Kings

+18 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Acuff Jr.3617.3Available
De'Andre Hunter3216.6Available
Domantas Sabonis3123.4Available
Zach LaVine3017.6Available
Keegan Murray2514.6Available
Dylan Cardwell2116.7Available
Leaky Black1912.9Available
Emanuel Sharp1815.4Available
Malik Monk1517.4Available
Daeqwon Plowden712.9Available
Maxime Raynaud—15.8Out
Precious Achiuwa—15.7Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ThunderKings
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Thunder

5 listed

  • Jaylin Williams F

    Out

    Williams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.

  • Thomas Sorber C

    Out

    Sorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.

  • Cason Wallace G

    Out

    Wallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.

  • Chet Holmgren C

    Out

    Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.

  • Jalen Williams G

    Out

    Williams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.

Kings

3 listed

  • Precious Achiuwa F

    Out

    Achiuwa left Tuesday's 107-100 loss to the Magic with a left lower leg contusion and did not return, Matt George of ABC 10 Sacramento reports.

  • Maxime Raynaud C

    Out

    Raynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.

  • Ben Simmons G

    Out

    Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonOKCSAC
Against the spread6–34–5
Last 106–34–5
Favorite4–2—
Underdog2–14–5
Overs–unders2–74–5
Overs–unders, last 102–74–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

OKC 8–2 SAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.