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Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast

MyMi, Bucks App

Away

Hawks

7-5

76%

at

Home

Bucks

1-10

24%

The pick
ATL · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
120–111
Fair odds
-319

Your pick

Fiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Hawks at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Hawks rate higher (1522 to 1360 Elo), the Bucks have home court and lineup changes favor the Hawks.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Hawks

Now 92%

93%

with a win

91%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Bucks

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Hawks 76%

Strong
ATL 76%MIL 24%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
ATL 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ATL -5.5
ATL 71%
Fair odds
ATL -319
MIL +319 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ATL 119.6 – 110.8 MIL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLMILWhy
Team rating15221360Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−11−38ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsATL +153 EloATL 70.7%
Market-implied ratingsATL 76.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastATL 76.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatMIL
5th of 30118.3Points scored106.329th of 30
22nd of 30116.2Points allowed121.228th of 30
14th of 30+2.1Margin−14.929th of 30
14th of 30112.6Offense rating105.027th of 30
14th of 30110.7Defense rating119.729th of 30
2nd of 30104.9Pace101.117th of 30
14th of 285–5Last 101–926th of 28
7th of 304–2Road vs home1–525th of 30
27th of 301466Opponent Elo15325th of 30
13th of 301522Elo rating136026th of 30
4th of 30+2.3Offense, adjusted−3.828th of 30
21st of 30−1.6Defense, adjusted−3.725th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Hawks

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Johnson3123.3Available
Nickeil Alexander-Walker2920.3Available
Dyson Daniels2820.5Available
Onyeka Okongwu2820.7Available
Aaron Wiggins2219.3Available
CJ McCollum2220.1Available
Luguentz Dort2214.2Available
Kingston Flemings2117.1Available
Jalen Wilson1211.6Available
Jock Landale918.8Available
Zuby Ejiofor618.4Available
RayJ Dennis516.0Available

Bucks

−38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Kyle Kuzma2813.9Available
Myles Turner2816.7Available
Jaime Jaquez Jr.2718.9Available
Brayden Burries2616.1Available
Ryan Rollins2318.0Available
AJ Green1912.2Available
Nate Ament1916.0Available
Kasparas Jakucionis1815.5Available
Kel'el Ware1720.0Available
Ousmane Dieng1312.5Available
Jericho Sims1012.9Available
Gary Trent Jr.512.5Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HawksBucks
135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Hawks

4 listed

  • Asa Newell F

    Out

    Newell (toe) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Keshon Gilbert G

    Out

    Gilbert (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Mouhamed Gueye F

    Out

    Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.

  • Henri Veesaar C

    Out

    Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.

Bucks

1 listed

  • Tyler Herro G

    Out

    Herro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonATLMIL
Against the spread3–53–8
Last 103–53–7
Favorite2–30–1
Underdog1–23–7
Overs–unders4–45–6
Overs–unders, last 104–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ATL 6–5 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.