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Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast

KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Away

Mavericks

7-4

18%

at

Home

Celtics

9-2

82%

The pick
BOS · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
106–117
Fair odds
-459

Your pick

TD Garden · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Celtics at 82%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Celtics rate higher (1650 to 1468 Elo), lineup changes favor the Mavericks and the Mavericks are on a back-to-back.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Mavericks

Now 17%

20%

with a win

16%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Celtics

Now 100%

100%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Celtics 82%

Strong
DAL 18%BOS 82%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 82%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -7.5
BOS 77%
Fair odds
BOS -459
DAL +459 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DAL 105.9 – 117.4 BOS
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALBOSWhy
Team rating14681650Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—DAL on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+38−11DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsBOS +209 EloBOS 76.9%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 82.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 82.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatBOS
14th of 30114.9Points scored115.711th of 30
9th of 30110.3Points allowed104.02nd of 30
12th of 30+4.6Margin+11.71st of 30
11th of 30113.3Offense rating117.53rd of 30
10th of 30108.8Defense rating105.56th of 30
20th of 30100.8Pace97.729th of 30
5th of 287–3Last 109–11st of 28
12th of 302–2Road vs home5–01st of 30
19th of 301493Opponent Elo146826th of 30
20th of 301468Elo rating16504th of 30
12th of 30+0.8Offense, adjusted+0.416th of 30
18th of 30−0.9Defense, adjusted+5.52nd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cooper Flagg3322.5Available
P.J. Washington3115.2Available
Kyrie Irving3125.2Available
Naji Marshall2117.5Available
Daniel Gafford2021.6Available
Santi Aldama2018.9Available
Walter Clayton Jr.1914.3Available
Zaccharie Risacher1815.7Available
Caleb Martin1711.6Available
Max Christie1312.4Available
Morez Johnson Jr.918.5Day-To-Day−2
Marcus Sasser516.9Available

Celtics

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jayson Tatum3128.8Available
Paul George2821.2Available
Derrick White2721.8Available
Payton Pritchard2622.9Available
Neemias Queta2124.0Available
Sam Hauser2018.9Available
Baylor Scheierman1916.6Available
Mitchell Robinson1720.5Available
Jordan Walsh1515.4Available
Hugo Gonzalez1416.7Available
Luka Garza1222.5Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksCeltics
13001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Mavericks

4 listed

  • Morez Johnson Jr. F

    Day-To-Day

    Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.

  • Sergio de Larrea F

    Out

    De Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.

  • Tarik Biberovic F

    Out

    Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.

  • Dereck Lively II C

    Out

    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.

Celtics

Nothing on the injury report.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALBOS
Against the spread7–35–5
Last 107–35–5
Favorite2–15–4
Underdog5–20–1
Overs–unders2–85–5
Overs–unders, last 102–85–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 2–9 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.