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Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Warriors

8-3

47%

at

Home

Trail Blazers

7-3

53%

The pick
POR · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
114–115
Fair odds
-112

Your pick

Moda Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Trail Blazers at 53%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Trail Blazers have home court and the Warriors rate higher (1550 to 1524 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Warriors

Now 84%

86%

with a win

82%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Trail Blazers

Now 67%

69%

with a win

64%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Trail Blazers 53%

Toss-up
GS 47%POR 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
POR 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
POR -0.5
POR 52%
Fair odds
POR -112
GS +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
GS 113.8 – 114.7 POR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorGSPORWhy
Team rating15501524Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+37+44GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44, Kristaps Porzingis −31, Brandon Williams −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPOR +17 EloPOR 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsPOR 52.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPOR 52.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers compared, with each team's league rank
GSStatPOR
2nd of 30120.4Points scored119.73rd of 30
12th of 30111.2Points allowed112.713th of 30
4th of 30+9.2Margin+7.010th of 30
2nd of 30118.3Offense rating117.24th of 30
11th of 30109.3Defense rating110.413th of 30
21st of 30100.8Pace102.09th of 30
12th of 302–2Road vs home2–214th of 30
11th of 301518Opponent Elo15209th of 30
9th of 301550Elo rating152412th of 30
5th of 30+2.1Offense, adjusted+1.68th of 30
13th of 30+0.6Defense, adjusted+1.310th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Warriors

+37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Brandin Podziemski3220.0Available
Yaxel Lendeborg3020.8Available
Stephen Curry2929.4Available
Draymond Green2714.9Available
De'Anthony Melton2319.3Available
Georges Niang2216.4Available
Gui Santos1918.4Available
Al Horford1819.0Available
Charles Bassey1618.9Available
Graham Ike918.4Available
LJ Cryer817.0Available
Malevy Leons614.6Available

Trail Blazers

+44 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Deni Avdija3223.1Available
Toumani Camara2815.0Available
Damian Lillard2725.7Available
Jrue Holiday2620.6Available
Donovan Clingan2521.8Available
Scoot Henderson2314.7Available
Sidy Cissoko2212.9Available
Robert Williams III1622.8Available
Chris Youngblood1317.1Available
Yang Hansen813.1Available
Branden Carlson718.8Available
Micah Potter615.7Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WarriorsTrail Blazers
14001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Warriors

6 listed

  • Gary Payton II G

    Out

    Payton (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Will Richard G

    Out

    Richard (thumb) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Brandon Williams G

    Out

    Williams (hamstring) will miss at least one week, per Anthony Slater of ESPN.com.

  • Kristaps Porzingis C

    Out

    Porzingis announced on his social media that he's stepping away from basketball.

  • Moses Moody G

    Out

    Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

  • Jimmy Butler III F

    Out

    Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

Trail Blazers

3 listed

  • Ja Morant G

    Out

    Head coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.

  • Vit Krejci G

    Out

    Head coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Shaedon Sharpe G

    Out

    Sharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonGSPOR
Against the spread6–26–3
Last 106–26–3
Favorite2–13–1
Underdog4–13–2
Overs–unders4–44–5
Overs–unders, last 104–44–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

GS 8–3 POR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.