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Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Hawks

7-5

28%

at

Home

Celtics

9-2

72%

The pick
BOS · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
109–116
Fair odds
-261

Your pick

TD Garden

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Celtics at 72%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Celtics rate higher (1650 to 1522 Elo) and the Celtics have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Hawks

Now 92%

94%

with a win

92%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Celtics

Now 100%

100%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Celtics 72%

Strong
ATL 28%BOS 72%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 72%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -6
BOS 72%
Fair odds
BOS -261
ATL +261 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ATL 109.1 – 116.4 BOS
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLBOSWhy
Team rating15221650Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−11−11ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsBOS +164 EloBOS 71.9%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 72.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 72.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatBOS
5th of 30118.3Points scored115.711th of 30
22nd of 30116.2Points allowed104.02nd of 30
14th of 30+2.1Margin+11.71st of 30
14th of 30112.6Offense rating117.53rd of 30
14th of 30110.7Defense rating105.56th of 30
2nd of 30104.9Pace97.729th of 30
14th of 285–5Last 109–11st of 28
7th of 304–2Road vs home5–01st of 30
27th of 301466Opponent Elo146826th of 30
13th of 301522Elo rating16504th of 30
4th of 30+2.3Offense, adjusted+0.416th of 30
21st of 30−1.6Defense, adjusted+5.52nd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Hawks

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Johnson3123.3Available
Nickeil Alexander-Walker2920.3Available
Dyson Daniels2820.5Available
Onyeka Okongwu2820.7Available
Aaron Wiggins2219.3Available
CJ McCollum2220.1Available
Luguentz Dort2214.2Available
Kingston Flemings2117.1Available
Jalen Wilson1211.6Available
Jock Landale918.8Available
Zuby Ejiofor618.4Available
RayJ Dennis516.0Available

Celtics

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jayson Tatum3128.8Available
Paul George2821.2Available
Derrick White2721.8Available
Payton Pritchard2622.9Available
Neemias Queta2124.0Available
Sam Hauser2018.9Available
Baylor Scheierman1916.6Available
Mitchell Robinson1720.5Available
Jordan Walsh1515.4Available
Hugo Gonzalez1416.7Available
Luka Garza1222.5Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HawksCeltics
1400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Hawks

4 listed

  • Asa Newell F

    Out

    Newell (toe) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Keshon Gilbert G

    Out

    Gilbert (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Mouhamed Gueye F

    Out

    Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.

  • Henri Veesaar C

    Out

    Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.

Celtics

Nothing on the injury report.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonATLBOS
Against the spread3–55–5
Last 103–55–5
Favorite2–35–4
Underdog1–20–1
Overs–unders4–45–5
Overs–unders, last 104–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ATL 6–5 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.