Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Bucks

1-10

12%

at

Home

Pistons

7-3

88%

The pick
DET · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
103–119
Fair odds
-760

Your pick

Little Caesars Arena · MyMi, Bucks App

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 88%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1360 Elo), the Pistons have home court and lineup changes favor the Pistons.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Bucks

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Pistons

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Pistons 88%

Strong
MIL 12%DET 88%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DET 88%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET -11.5
DET 86%
Fair odds
DET -760
MIL +760 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MIL 103.1 – 118.5 DET
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILDETWhy
Team rating13601612Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−38−21MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12—MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsDET +317 EloDET 86.1%
Market-implied ratingsDET 88.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDET 88.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatDET
29th of 30106.3Points scored112.717th of 30
28th of 30121.2Points allowed104.63rd of 30
29th of 30−14.9Margin+8.17th of 30
27th of 30105.0Offense rating112.315th of 30
29th of 30119.7Defense rating104.22nd of 30
17th of 30101.1Pace100.224th of 30
27th of 300–5Road vs home3–212th of 30
5th of 301532Opponent Elo150517th of 30
26th of 301360Elo rating16127th of 30
28th of 30−3.8Offense, adjusted−0.218th of 30
25th of 30−3.7Defense, adjusted+4.73rd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Bucks

−38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Kyle Kuzma2813.9Available
Myles Turner2816.7Available
Jaime Jaquez Jr.2718.9Available
Brayden Burries2616.1Available
Ryan Rollins2318.0Available
AJ Green1912.2Available
Nate Ament1916.0Available
Kasparas Jakucionis1815.5Available
Kel'el Ware1720.0Available
Ousmane Dieng1312.5Available
Jericho Sims1012.9Available
Gary Trent Jr.512.5Available

Pistons

−21 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cade Cunningham3326.8Available
Duncan Robinson3119.2Available
Daniss Jenkins2819.4Available
Ausar Thompson2720.2Available
John Collins2619.0Available
Kevin Huerter2517.8Available
Paul Reed2423.7Available
Javonte Green1518.0Available
Ronald Holland II1516.2Available
Elijah Harkless814.9Available
Jalen Duren—26.6Out−32
Isaiah Joe—21.5Out−5

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BucksPistons
1350145015501650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Bucks

1 listed

  • Tyler Herro G

    Out

    Herro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.

Pistons

2 listed

  • Isaiah Joe G

    Out

    Joe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.

  • Jalen Duren C

    Out

    Duren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILDET
Against the spread3–86–3
Last 103–76–3
Favorite0–15–2
Underdog3–71–1
Overs–unders5–66–3
Overs–unders, last 104–66–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 9–3 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.