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Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Celtics

9-2

76%

at

Home

Wizards

4-7

24%

The pick
BOS · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
116–107
Fair odds
-315

Your pick

Capital One Arena · NBC

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Celtics at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Celtics rate higher (1650 to 1326 Elo), lineup changes favor the Wizards and the Wizards have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Celtics

Now 100%

100%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Wizards

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Celtics 76%

Strong
BOS 76%WSH 24%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -6
BOS 73%
Fair odds
BOS -315
WSH +315 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
BOS 115.7 – 107.0 WSH
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSWSHWhy
Team rating16501326Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−11+70BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−36—BOS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsBOS +170 EloBOS 72.7%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 76.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 75.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatWSH
11th of 30115.7Points scored108.125th of 30
2nd of 30104.0Points allowed113.416th of 30
1st of 30+11.7Margin−5.321st of 30
3rd of 30117.5Offense rating106.723rd of 30
6th of 30105.5Defense rating111.916th of 30
29th of 3097.7Pace101.019th of 30
1st of 289–1Last 103–720th of 28
7th of 304–2Road vs home2–214th of 30
26th of 301468Opponent Elo150616th of 30
4th of 301650Elo rating132629th of 30
16th of 30+0.4Offense, adjusted−2.024th of 30
2nd of 30+5.5Defense, adjusted−3.124th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Celtics

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jayson Tatum3128.8Available
Paul George2821.2Available
Derrick White2721.8Available
Payton Pritchard2622.9Available
Neemias Queta2124.0Available
Sam Hauser2018.9Available
Baylor Scheierman1916.6Available
Mitchell Robinson1720.5Available
Jordan Walsh1515.4Available
Hugo Gonzalez1416.7Available
Luka Garza1222.5Available

Wizards

+70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Trae Young3223.3Available
Kyshawn George3213.3Available
Anthony Davis3128.0Available
AJ Dybantsa2817.1Available
Alex Sarr2415.4Available
Bilal Coulibaly2310.8Available
Tre Johnson2211.8Available
Bub Carrington189.3Available
Deandre Ayton1418.5Available
Will Riley712.2Available
Jamir Watkins—14.4Out
Justin Champagnie—16.8Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsWizards
120013001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Celtics

Nothing on the injury report.

Wizards

4 listed

  • Tristan Vukcevic F

    Out

    Vukcevic (hip) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Detroit.

  • Reece Beekman G

    Out

    The Wizards announced Monday that Beekman sustained a right acromioclavicular joint injury and will be re-evaluated in approximately three weeks.

  • Justin Champagnie F

    Out

    Champagnie (foot) is expected to miss several months, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.

  • Jamir Watkins G

    Out

    The Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSWSH
Against the spread5–55–4
Last 105–55–4
Favorite5–41–0
Underdog0–14–4
Overs–unders5–52–7
Overs–unders, last 105–52–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 11–0 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.