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Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Pistons

7-3

65%

at

Home

Magic

3-7

35%

The pick
DET · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
112–107
Fair odds
-186

Your pick

Kia Center

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 65%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1476 Elo) and the Magic have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pistons

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Magic

Now 44%

48%

with a win

42%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Pistons 65%

Solid
DET 65%ORL 35%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DET 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET -4
DET 65%
Fair odds
DET -186
ORL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DET 111.9 – 107.2 ORL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDETORLWhy
Team rating16121476Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−21−28DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −33, Jalen Suggs −4, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDET +107 EloDET 64.9%
Market-implied ratingsDET 65.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDET 65.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic compared, with each team's league rank
DETStatORL
17th of 30112.7Points scored107.026th of 30
3rd of 30104.6Points allowed114.618th of 30
7th of 30+8.1Margin−7.624th of 30
15th of 30112.3Offense rating105.825th of 30
2nd of 30104.2Defense rating113.322nd of 30
24th of 30100.2Pace100.225th of 30
6th of 304–1Road vs home0–427th of 30
17th of 301505Opponent Elo15237th of 30
7th of 301612Elo rating147619th of 30
18th of 30−0.2Offense, adjusted−2.326th of 30
3rd of 30+4.7Defense, adjusted+0.414th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pistons

−21 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cade Cunningham3326.8Available
Duncan Robinson3119.2Available
Daniss Jenkins2819.4Available
Ausar Thompson2720.2Available
John Collins2619.0Available
Kevin Huerter2517.8Available
Paul Reed2423.7Available
Javonte Green1518.0Available
Ronald Holland II1516.2Available
Elijah Harkless814.9Available
Jalen Duren—26.6Out−32
Isaiah Joe—21.5Out−5

Magic

−28 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Franz Wagner3823.5Available
Desmond Bane3720.4Available
Wendell Carter Jr.3517.2Available
Anthony Black3316.1Available
Jamal Cain2413.5Available
Jase Richardson2314.8Available
Alex Morales1516.7Available
Nikola Vucevic1220.5Available
Goga Bitadze1019.7Available
Jevon Carter914.2Available
Colin Castleton415.4Available
Paolo Banchero—22.6Out−33

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PistonsMagic
1400145015001550160016501700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pistons

2 listed

  • Isaiah Joe G

    Out

    Joe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.

  • Jalen Duren C

    Out

    Duren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.

Magic

6 listed

  • Tristan da Silva F

    Out

    Da Silva (calf) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Jalen Suggs G

    Out

    Suggs (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings.

  • Jonathan Isaac F

    Out

    Isaac (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against Sacramento.

  • Paolo Banchero F

    Out

    Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Noah Penda F

    Out

    Penda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Izaiyah Nelson F

    Out

    Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDETORL
Against the spread6–32–5
Last 106–32–5
Favorite5–21–3
Underdog1–11–2
Overs–unders6–33–4
Overs–unders, last 106–33–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DET 7–11 ORL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.