Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 71%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1521 Elo), lineup changes favor the Pistons and the Pistons have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Raptors
Now 77%
79%
with a win
76%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Pistons
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Pistons 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Fair odds
- DET -247
- TOR +247 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- TOR 107.3 – 114.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | −21 | TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −65, Scottie Barnes −33, Immanuel Quickley (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +155 Elo | DET 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 112.717th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +8.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 112.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 150517th of 30 |
| 14th of 301521 | Elo rating | 16127th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Offense, adjusted | −0.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Defense, adjusted | +4.73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Raptors
−60 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 35 | 21.3 | Available |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 31 | 14.8 | Available |
| Jamal Shead | 28 | 15.1 | Available |
| Jakob Poeltl | 24 | 21.0 | Available |
| Malachi Smith | 24 | 15.6 | Available |
| Jamison Battle | 21 | 15.1 | Available |
| Immanuel Quickley | 19 | 21.4 | Day-To-Day−9 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 15 | 20.2 | Day-To-Day−4 |
| Alijah Martin | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Allen Graves | 13 | 18.5 | Available |
| Kyle Anderson | 7 | 16.2 | Available |
| Jaden Bradley | 5 | 18.6 | Available |
Pistons
−21 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 33 | 26.8 | Available |
| Duncan Robinson | 31 | 19.2 | Available |
| Daniss Jenkins | 28 | 19.4 | Available |
| Ausar Thompson | 27 | 20.2 | Available |
| John Collins | 26 | 19.0 | Available |
| Kevin Huerter | 25 | 17.8 | Available |
| Paul Reed | 24 | 23.7 | Available |
| Javonte Green | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Ronald Holland II | 15 | 16.2 | Available |
| Elijah Harkless | 8 | 14.9 | Available |
| Jalen Duren | — | 26.6 | Out−32 |
| Isaiah Joe | — | 21.5 | Out−5 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Raptors
6 listedTrayce Jackson-Davis F
Day-To-DayJackson-Davis is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston with an illness.
Collin Murray-Boyles F
Day-To-DayMurray-Boyles (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Celtics.
Immanuel Quickley G
Day-To-DayQuickley (hamstring) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston.
Scottie Barnes F
OutBarnes (groin) is out for Wednesday's game against Boston.
Kawhi Leonard F
OutLeonard (knee) is continuing the reconditioning process, and another update will be provided in one week, Blake Murphy of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Nate Bittle C
OutBittle (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against Memphis.
Pistons
2 listedIsaiah Joe G
OutJoe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.
Jalen Duren C
OutDuren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–8 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Mar 31TOR 116 @ DET 127Picked DET 58%Hit
- Mar 15DET 108 @ TOR 119Picked DET 58%Miss
- Feb 11DET 113 @ TOR 95Picked TOR 51%Miss
- Apr 4DET 117 @ TOR 105Picked DET 80%Hit
- Jan 11TOR 114 @ DET 123Picked DET 65%Hit
- Nov 25TOR 100 @ DET 102Picked DET 58%Hit
- Nov 15DET 99 @ TOR 95Picked DET 56%Hit
- Mar 13TOR 104 @ DET 113Picked DET 64%Hit