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Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

ESPN+, CARNHL

Away

Senators

11-6-2

34%

at

Home

Hurricanes

14-3-2

66%

The pick
CAR · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–4
Fair odds
-193

Your pick

Lenovo Center · ESPN+, CARNHL

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Hurricanes at 66%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Hurricanes rate higher (1599 to 1525 Elo), the Hurricanes have home ice and the Senators are on a back-to-back.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Senators

Now 69%

74%

with a win

67%

with a loss

This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.

Hurricanes

Now 99%

99%

with a win

98%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Hurricanes 66%

Solid
OTT 34%CAR 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CAR 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 69%
Fair odds
CAR -193
OTT +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
OTT 2.7 – 3.6 CAR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOTTCARWhy
Team rating15251599Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—OTT on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies——OTT: Starter not announced · CAR: Starter not announced
Elo ratingsCAR +139 EloCAR 69.0%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 65.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 65.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Ottawa Senators and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
OTTStatCAR
16th of 323.2Goals scored4.11st of 32
11th of 323.0Goals allowed2.43rd of 32
15th of 32+0.2Margin+1.71st of 32
19th of 3248.9%Shot share59.7%1st of 32
10th of 3289.9%Save percentage89.9%9th of 32
14th of 325–5Last 107–32nd of 32
11th of 325–5Road vs home6–25th of 32
26th of 321491Opponent Elo147831st of 32
12th of 321525Elo rating15991st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SenatorsHurricanes
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Senators

5 listed

  • Linus Ullmark G

    Day-To-Day

    day-to-day

  • Nick Cousins C

    Day-To-Day

    day-to-day

  • Andre Burakovsky LW

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Warren Foegele LW

    Injured Reserve

    Foegele (knee) will miss 3-4 weeks, Jackson Starr of the Senators' official site reports Saturday.

  • William Eklund LW

    Injured Reserve

    Eklund had surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon and will be out 10-12 weeks, Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports Thursday.

Hurricanes

2 listed

  • William Carrier LW

    Day-To-Day

    day-to-day

  • Jordan Staal C

    Injured Reserve

    ir

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonOTTCAR
Puck line6–119–9
Last 103–74–6
Favorite3–89–9
Underdog3–3—
Overs–unders6–118–10
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

OTT 3–10 CAR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.