Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
- The pick
- PIT · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -109
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Penguins at 52%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Penguins have home ice, the Penguins are on a back-to-back and the Penguins rate higher (1488 to 1468 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Maple Leafs
Now 14%
16%
with a win
12%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Penguins
Now 18%
21%
with a win
15%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Penguins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- TOR 3.1 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | TOR: Starter not announced · PIT: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 49.9%12th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 87.6%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 32 |
| 11th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 32 |
| 27th of 321468 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Maple Leafs
10 listedMorgan Rielly D
OutRielly (lower body) has been deemed day-to-day and will not play in Tuesday's home clash against the Avalanche, per David Alter of The Hockey News.
Colton Sissons C
Outout
Kirill Marchenko RW
Injured Reserveir
Miles Wood LW
Injured ReserveWood (undisclosed) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.
Nick Blankenburg D
Injured ReserveBlankenburg (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Maple Leafs on Friday, David Alter of The Hockey News reports.
Marshall Rifai D
Injured Reserveir
Max Domi C
Injured ReserveDomi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia.
Cade Webber D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Elvis Merzlikins G
Injured ReserveMerzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet.
William Villeneuve D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Penguins
5 listedVille Koivunen RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Elmer Soderblom LW
Injured ReserveSoderblom (upper body) is week-to-week, per Penguins PR on Monday.
Bryan Rust RW
Injured ReserveRust (lower body) will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Michelle Crechiolo of the Penguins' official site reports Thursday.
Trevor van Riemsdyk D
Injured Reserveir
Ryan Graves D
Injured ReserveGraves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–10 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–2 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.