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Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

ESPN+, Scripps Sports, The Spot - MTN

Away

Lightning

11-4-2

51%

at

Home

Panthers

10-7-2

49%

The pick
TB · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-103

Your pick

Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, The Spot - MTN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Lightning 51%). It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Lightning rate higher (1553 to 1511 Elo) and the Panthers have home ice.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Lightning

Now 89%

91%

with a win

88%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Panthers

Now 49%

52%

with a win

45%

with a loss

This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Lightning 51%

Toss-up
TB 51%FLA 49%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
TB 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB 51%
Fair odds
TB -103
FLA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
TB 3.1 – 3.1 FLA
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTBFLAWhy
Team rating15531511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30−30FLA and TB on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies——TB: Starter not announced · FLA: Starter not announced
Elo ratingsTB +7 EloTB 51.1%
Market-implied ratingsTB 50.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 50.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
TBStatFLA
6th of 323.7Goals scored3.216th of 32
17th of 323.1Goals allowed2.99th of 32
8th of 32+0.6Margin+0.212th of 32
3rd of 3254.9%Shot share53.1%7th of 32
26th of 3288.2%Save percentage89.2%15th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 105–514th of 32
22nd of 323–6Road vs home4–28th of 32
25th of 321492Opponent Elo148530th of 32
3rd of 321553Elo rating151114th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

LightningPanthers
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Lightning

1 listed

  • Brayden Point C

    Injured Reserve

    ir

Panthers

4 listed

  • Sandis Vilmanis LW

    Out

    Vilmanis (undisclosed) will probably miss a few games, according to George Richards of Florida Hockey Now on Saturday.

  • Brad Marchand LW

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Paul Maurice said Friday that Marchand (knee) will travel with the Panthers during their upcoming three-game road trip, Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site reports.

  • Aleksander Barkov C

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Paul Maurice said Friday that Barkov (knee) will travel with the Panthers during their upcoming three-game road trip, Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site reports.

  • Jonah Gadjovich LW

    Injured Reserve

    Gadjovich (upper body) is out indefinitely, the team announced Thursday.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTBFLA
Puck line9–77–10
Last 106–45–5
Favorite7–65–7
Underdog2–12–3
Overs–unders9–77–10
Overs–unders, last 107–34–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TB 8–13 FLA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.