Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
- The pick
- TB · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -104
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Lightning 51%). It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Hurricanes rate higher (1599 to 1553 Elo) and the Lightning have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Hurricanes
Now 99%
>99%
with a win
98%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Lightning
Now 89%
91%
with a win
87%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Lightning 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 48%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- CAR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CAR 3.1 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | CAR: Starter not announced · TB: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | CAR +11 Elo | CAR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 32 |
| 1st of 3259.7% | Shot share | 54.9%3rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.2%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–3 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
| 31st of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 149225th of 32 |
| 1st of 321599 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Hurricanes
2 listedWilliam Carrier LW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Jordan Staal C
Injured Reserveir
Lightning
1 listedBrayden Point C
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–5 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.