Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Canadiens at 60%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Canadiens rate higher (1535 to 1474 Elo) and the Canadiens have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Flyers
Now 7%
8%
with a win
6%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Canadiens
Now 73%
75%
with a win
69%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Canadiens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 63%
- Fair odds
- MTL -148
- PHI +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- PHI 2.9 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | PHI: Starter not announced · MTL: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | MTL +96 Elo | MTL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.3% | Shot share | 49.7%14th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 32 |
| 6th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 25th of 321474 | Elo rating | 15358th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Flyers
2 listedRasmus Ristolainen D
Injured ReserveRistolainen (hand) was placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24, on Tuesday.
Nikita Grebenkin RW
Injured ReserveGrebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Canadiens
5 listedIvan Demidov RW
Injured ReserveDemidov (foot) skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week, Patrick Friolet of RDS reports.
Mike Matheson D
OutMatheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday.
Sam Montembeault G
Injured ReserveMontembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday.
Bryce Pickford D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Lucas Condotta LW
Injured Reserveir-nr
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 MTL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.