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Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

TNT, truTV

Away

Stars

10-5-2

43%

at

Home

Golden Knights

12-5-2

57%

The pick
VGK · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-134

Your pick

T-Mobile Arena · TNT, truTV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Golden Knights at 57%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Golden Knights have home ice.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Stars

Now 82%

84%

with a win

80%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Golden Knights

Now 95%

96%

with a win

93%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Golden Knights 57%

Lean
DAL 43%VGK 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
VGK 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 55%
Fair odds
VGK -134
DAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DAL 2.9 – 3.4 VGK
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALVGKWhy
Team rating15381539Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1+2DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +37 EloVGK 55.4%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 57.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 57.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatVGK
22nd of 322.9Goals scored3.412th of 32
4th of 322.4Goals allowed2.75th of 32
9th of 32+0.5Margin+0.76th of 32
6th of 3253.2%Shot share52.5%10th of 32
5th of 3290.7%Save percentage90.2%7th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 105–514th of 32
8th of 324–3Road vs home6–38th of 32
18th of 321498Opponent Elo148827th of 32
6th of 321538Elo rating15395th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsGolden Knights
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Stars

5 listed

  • Miro Heiskanen D

    Day-To-Day

    day-to-day

  • Kyle Capobianco D

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Oskar Back C

    Injured Reserve

    Back was placed on long-term injured reserve on Saturday.

  • Matt Duchene C

    Injured Reserve

    Duchene will be out for approximately three months after undergoing surgery to repair a core injury, the team announced Monday.

  • Luke Krys D

    Injured Reserve

    ir-nr

Golden Knights

2 listed

  • Noah Hanifin D

    Out

    out

  • Parker Wotherspoon D

    Injured Reserve

    ir

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALVGK
Puck line6–108–11
Last 104–64–6
Favorite5–107–10
Underdog1–01–1
Overs–unders4–1211–8
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 8–8 VGK in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.