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Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast

NBCSN

Away

Lakers

10-2

38%

at

Home

Rockets

8-3

62%

The pick
HOU · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
110–114
Fair odds
-160

Your pick

Toyota Center (Houston) · NBCSN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rockets at 62%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Lakers are on a back-to-back, the Rockets have home court and the Lakers rate higher (1625 to 1604 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Lakers

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Rockets

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Rockets 62%

Lean
LAL 38%HOU 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
HOU 62%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU -1.5
HOU 56%
Fair odds
HOU -160
LAL +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
LAL 110.4 – 114.0 HOU
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLALHOUWhy
Team rating16251604Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—LAL on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+27+16LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Steven Adams −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsHOU +43 EloHOU 56.1%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 62.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 61.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets compared, with each team's league rank
LALStatHOU
1st of 30122.1Points scored115.513th of 30
17th of 30114.4Points allowed106.45th of 30
8th of 30+7.7Margin+9.15th of 30
1st of 30119.6Offense rating116.66th of 30
17th of 30112.1Defense rating107.47th of 30
7th of 30102.2Pace99.026th of 30
3rd of 288–2Last 107–35th of 28
3rd of 305–1Road vs home5–14th of 30
20th of 301492Opponent Elo15442nd of 30
6th of 301625Elo rating16048th of 30
1st of 30+3.1Offense, adjusted0.017th of 30
12th of 30+0.7Defense, adjusted+4.66th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Lakers

+27 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Luka Doncic3434.0Available
Austin Reaves3323.0Available
Walker Kessler2819.7Available
Jake LaRavia2414.9Available
Matisse Thybulle2215.0Available
Sandro Mamukelashvili2221.8Available
Ziaire Williams2113.5Available
Collin Sexton1919.7Available
Quentin Grimes1415.7Day-To-Day
Jarred Vanderbilt615.1Available
Adou Thiero416.0Available

Rockets

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jabari Smith Jr.3518.6Available
Alperen Sengun3325.7Available
Kevin Durant3325.9Available
Amen Thompson3222.5Available
Fred VanVleet2919.7Available
Tari Eason2219.1Available
Marcus Smart1916.1Available
Reed Sheppard1918.7Available
Bogdan Bogdanovic817.0Available
Oscar Tshiebwe520.0Available
Steven Adams—20.9Out−1
Clint Capela—20.5Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

LakersRockets
145015001550160016501700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Lakers

1 listed

  • Quentin Grimes G

    Day-To-Day

    Grimes (finger) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game in Milwaukee.

Rockets

2 listed

  • Clint Capela C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka stated Monday that Capela (ankle) could be cleared to return either Nov. 15 in Washington or Nov. 16 in Miami, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

  • Steven Adams C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday's game at Washington, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLALHOU
Against the spread6–38–2
Last 106–38–2
Favorite5–37–2
Underdog1–01–0
Overs–unders5–46–4
Overs–unders, last 105–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAL 10–6 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.