Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 61%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1542 Elo), lineup changes favor the Nuggets and the Pistons have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Nuggets
Now 80%
82%
with a win
78%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Pistons
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Pistons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- DET 60%
- Fair odds
- DET -155
- DEN +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DEN 110.2 – 113.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | −21 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +67 Elo | DET 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 112.717th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +8.17th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 112.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 100.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150517th of 30 |
| 11th of 301542 | Elo rating | 16127th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.9 | Offense, adjusted | −0.218th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Defense, adjusted | +4.73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Nuggets
+19 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 33 | 26.6 | Available |
| Nikola Jokic | 33 | 36.5 | Available |
| Christian Braun | 29 | 19.1 | Available |
| Cameron Johnson | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Aaron Gordon | 26 | 22.3 | Available |
| DeMar DeRozan | 20 | 19.3 | Available |
| Spencer Jones | 19 | 12.9 | Available |
| Trevon Brazile | 16 | 18.0 | Available |
| Marvin Bagley III | 12 | 19.3 | Available |
| Tyus Jones | 8 | 14.4 | Available |
| Bryce Hopkins | 6 | 16.9 | Available |
| Ryan Nembhard | 4 | 16.2 | Available |
Pistons
−21 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 33 | 26.8 | Available |
| Duncan Robinson | 31 | 19.2 | Available |
| Daniss Jenkins | 28 | 19.4 | Available |
| Ausar Thompson | 27 | 20.2 | Available |
| John Collins | 26 | 19.0 | Available |
| Kevin Huerter | 25 | 17.8 | Available |
| Paul Reed | 24 | 23.7 | Available |
| Javonte Green | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Ronald Holland II | 15 | 16.2 | Available |
| Elijah Harkless | 8 | 14.9 | Available |
| Jalen Duren | — | 26.6 | Out−32 |
| Isaiah Joe | — | 21.5 | Out−5 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Nuggets
1 listedJulian Strawther G
OutStrawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.
Pistons
2 listedIsaiah Joe G
OutJoe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.
Jalen Duren C
OutDuren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–2 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.