Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Hornets at 58%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Hornets rate higher (1486 to 1326 Elo), lineup changes favor the Wizards and the Hornets have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Wizards
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Hornets
Now 33%
35%
with a win
31%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Hornets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2.5
- CHA 60%
- Fair odds
- CHA -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- WSH 109.1 – 111.6 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1326 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +70 | −56 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −26, Brandon Miller (40% to sit) −5, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +69 Elo | CHA 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 98.830th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 110.410th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−5.3 | Margin | −11.527th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 101.230th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 113.120th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.0 | Pace | 97.330th of 30 |
| 20th of 283–7 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 28 |
| 20th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 147622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301326 | Elo rating | 148618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.0 | Offense, adjusted | −4.830th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.1 | Defense, adjusted | +2.38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Wizards
+70 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 32 | 23.3 | Available |
| Kyshawn George | 32 | 13.3 | Available |
| Anthony Davis | 31 | 28.0 | Available |
| AJ Dybantsa | 28 | 17.1 | Available |
| Alex Sarr | 24 | 15.4 | Available |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 23 | 10.8 | Available |
| Tre Johnson | 22 | 11.8 | Available |
| Bub Carrington | 18 | 9.3 | Available |
| Deandre Ayton | 14 | 18.5 | Available |
| Will Riley | 7 | 12.2 | Available |
| Jamir Watkins | — | 14.4 | Out |
| Justin Champagnie | — | 16.8 | Out |
Hornets
−56 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | 31 | 18.8 | Available |
| Grayson Allen | 27 | 18.2 | Available |
| Sion James | 27 | 12.7 | Available |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 23 | 19.8 | Available |
| Royce O'Neale | 22 | 13.4 | Available |
| Coby White | 18 | 20.1 | Available |
| Moussa Diabate | 18 | 19.2 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Brandon Miller | 17 | 19.4 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 16 | 12.3 | Available |
| Christian Anderson | 13 | 15.6 | Available |
| Hannes Steinbach | 11 | 16.1 | Available |
| Liam McNeeley | 10 | 15.7 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Wizards
4 listedTristan Vukcevic F
OutVukcevic (hip) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Detroit.
Reece Beekman G
OutThe Wizards announced Monday that Beekman sustained a right acromioclavicular joint injury and will be re-evaluated in approximately three weeks.
Justin Champagnie F
OutChampagnie (foot) is expected to miss several months, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.
Jamir Watkins G
OutThe Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.
Hornets
5 listedBrandon Miller F
Day-To-DayMiller (groin) is listed as out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Moussa Diabate F
Day-To-DayDiabate (quadriceps) has been downgraded to out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Grant Williams F
OutWilliams (hamstring) is out for Monday's game against the Cavaliers.
Kon Knueppel G
OutKnueppel (hamstring) was diagnosed with a left hamstring strain Sunday and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Dennis Schroder G
OutSchroder has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–7 CHA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.
- Oct 30CHA 79 @ WSH 95Picked CHA 50%Miss
- Oct 26WSH 103 @ CHA 110Picked CHA 56%Hit
- Feb 22CHA 129 @ WSH 112Picked CHA 81%Hit
- Jan 24WSH 115 @ CHA 119Picked CHA 80%Hit
- Dec 23WSH 109 @ CHA 126Picked CHA 69%Hit
- Oct 26CHA 139 @ WSH 113Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Mar 1WSH 113 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 61%Miss
- Feb 3WSH 124 @ CHA 114Picked CHA 62%Miss