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LA Clippers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast

ClipperVision

Away

Clippers

2-8

19%

at

Home

Rockets

8-3

81%

The pick
HOU · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
106–117
Fair odds
-430

Your pick

Toyota Center (Houston) · ClipperVision

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rockets at 81%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Rockets rate higher (1604 to 1491 Elo), lineup changes favor the Rockets and the Rockets have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Clippers

Now 14%

18%

with a win

13%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Rockets

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Rockets 81%

Strong
LAC 19%HOU 81%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
HOU 81%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU -8
HOU 78%
Fair odds
HOU -430
LAC +430 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
LAC 105.9 – 116.9 HOU
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLACHOUWhy
Team rating14911604Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−70+16LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Steven Adams −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel—−12HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsHOU +222 EloHOU 78.2%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 81.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 81.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
LA Clippers and Houston Rockets compared, with each team's league rank
LACStatHOU
19th of 30112.2Points scored115.513th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed106.45th of 30
23rd of 30−5.9Margin+9.15th of 30
20th of 30109.1Offense rating116.66th of 30
25th of 30114.8Defense rating107.47th of 30
12th of 30101.7Pace99.026th of 30
27th of 300–5Road vs home5–14th of 30
4th of 301534Opponent Elo15442nd of 30
16th of 301491Elo rating16048th of 30
19th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted0.017th of 30
19th of 30−1.1Defense, adjusted+4.66th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Clippers

−70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Garland3022.1Available
Rui Hachimura2715.9Available
Derrick Jones Jr.2616.9Available
Kris Dunn2515.3Available
Kobe Sanders2315.2Available
Brook Lopez2217.5Available
Max Strus2116.3Available
Keaton Wagler1917.6Available
Isaiah Jackson1818.9Available
Gradey Dick1414.7Available
Baba Miller918.7Available
Brandon Ingram—20.4Out−16

Rockets

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jabari Smith Jr.3518.6Available
Alperen Sengun3325.7Available
Kevin Durant3325.9Available
Amen Thompson3222.5Available
Fred VanVleet2919.7Available
Tari Eason2219.1Available
Marcus Smart1916.1Available
Reed Sheppard1918.7Available
Bogdan Bogdanovic817.0Available
Oscar Tshiebwe520.0Available
Steven Adams—20.9Out−1
Clint Capela—20.5Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ClippersRockets
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Clippers

5 listed

  • Cam Christie G

    Out

    Christie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.

  • Yanic Konan Niederhauser C

    Out

    Niederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Brandon Ingram F

    Out

    Ingram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Bradley Beal G

    Out

    Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.

  • Jordan Miller G

    Out

    Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.

Rockets

2 listed

  • Clint Capela C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka stated Monday that Capela (ankle) could be cleared to return either Nov. 15 in Washington or Nov. 16 in Miami, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

  • Steven Adams C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday's game at Washington, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLACHOU
Against the spread4–48–2
Last 104–48–2
Favorite1–07–2
Underdog3–41–0
Overs–unders5–36–4
Overs–unders, last 105–36–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAC 5–6 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.