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LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast

KFAA-TV, MavsTV, ClipperVision

Away

Clippers

2-8

35%

at

Home

Mavericks

7-4

65%

The pick
DAL · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
112–117
Fair odds
-183

Your pick

American Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, ClipperVision

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Mavericks at 65%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Mavericks, the Mavericks have home court and the Clippers rate higher (1491 to 1468 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Clippers

Now 14%

17%

with a win

12%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

Mavericks

Now 17%

18%

with a win

15%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Mavericks 65%

Solid
LAC 35%DAL 65%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DAL 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL -4.5
DAL 67%
Fair odds
DAL -183
LAC +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
LAC 112.3 – 116.9 DAL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLACDALWhy
Team rating14911468Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−70+38LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDAL +120 EloDAL 66.6%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 64.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 64.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks compared, with each team's league rank
LACStatDAL
19th of 30112.2Points scored114.914th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed110.39th of 30
23rd of 30−5.9Margin+4.612th of 30
20th of 30109.1Offense rating113.311th of 30
25th of 30114.8Defense rating108.810th of 30
12th of 30101.7Pace100.820th of 30
27th of 300–5Road vs home5–27th of 30
4th of 301534Opponent Elo149319th of 30
16th of 301491Elo rating146820th of 30
19th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted+0.812th of 30
19th of 30−1.1Defense, adjusted−0.918th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Clippers

−70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Garland3022.1Available
Rui Hachimura2715.9Available
Derrick Jones Jr.2616.9Available
Kris Dunn2515.3Available
Kobe Sanders2315.2Available
Brook Lopez2217.5Available
Max Strus2116.3Available
Keaton Wagler1917.6Available
Isaiah Jackson1818.9Available
Gradey Dick1414.7Available
Baba Miller918.7Available
Brandon Ingram—20.4Out−16

Mavericks

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cooper Flagg3322.5Available
P.J. Washington3115.2Available
Kyrie Irving3125.2Available
Naji Marshall2117.5Available
Daniel Gafford2021.6Available
Santi Aldama2018.9Available
Walter Clayton Jr.1914.3Available
Zaccharie Risacher1815.7Available
Caleb Martin1711.6Available
Max Christie1312.4Available
Morez Johnson Jr.918.5Day-To-Day−2
Marcus Sasser516.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ClippersMavericks
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Clippers

5 listed

  • Cam Christie G

    Out

    Christie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.

  • Yanic Konan Niederhauser C

    Out

    Niederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Brandon Ingram F

    Out

    Ingram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Bradley Beal G

    Out

    Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.

  • Jordan Miller G

    Out

    Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.

Mavericks

4 listed

  • Morez Johnson Jr. F

    Day-To-Day

    Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.

  • Sergio de Larrea F

    Out

    De Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.

  • Tarik Biberovic F

    Out

    Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.

  • Dereck Lively II C

    Out

    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLACDAL
Against the spread4–47–3
Last 104–47–3
Favorite1–02–1
Underdog3–45–2
Overs–unders5–32–8
Overs–unders, last 105–32–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAC 10–7 DAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.