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Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast

MyMi, Bucks App

Away

Bucks

1-10

14%

at

Home

76ers

9-3

86%

The pick
PHI · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
105–119
Fair odds
-633

Your pick

Xfinity Mobile Arena · MyMi, Bucks App

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 76ers at 86%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the 76ers rate higher (1511 to 1360 Elo), lineup changes favor the 76ers and the 76ers have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Bucks

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

76ers

Now 90%

90%

with a win

87%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

76ers 86%

Strong
MIL 14%PHI 86%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHI 86%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI -10.5
PHI 85%
Fair odds
PHI -633
MIL +633 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MIL 105.1 – 119.1 PHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILPHIWhy
Team rating13601511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−38+63MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12—MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsPHI +300 EloPHI 84.9%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 86.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 86.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatPHI
29th of 30106.3Points scored110.223rd of 30
28th of 30121.2Points allowed109.28th of 30
29th of 30−14.9Margin+1.016th of 30
27th of 30105.0Offense rating108.522nd of 30
29th of 30119.7Defense rating107.58th of 30
17th of 30101.1Pace101.416th of 30
26th of 281–9Last 107–35th of 28
27th of 300–5Road vs home4–28th of 30
5th of 301532Opponent Elo15218th of 30
26th of 301360Elo rating151115th of 30
28th of 30−3.8Offense, adjusted−1.022nd of 30
25th of 30−3.7Defense, adjusted+1.49th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Bucks

−38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Kyle Kuzma2813.9Available
Myles Turner2816.7Available
Jaime Jaquez Jr.2718.9Available
Brayden Burries2616.1Available
Ryan Rollins2318.0Available
AJ Green1912.2Available
Nate Ament1916.0Available
Kasparas Jakucionis1815.5Available
Kel'el Ware1720.0Available
Ousmane Dieng1312.5Available
Jericho Sims1012.9Available
Gary Trent Jr.512.5Available

76ers

+63 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Tyrese Maxey3424.4Available
VJ Edgecombe3217.2Available
Jaylen Brown3225.5Available
LeBron James3125.1Available
Joel Embiid2929.6Available
Dean Wade2115.3Available
Anfernee Simons1817.5Available
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope1813.8Available
Jabari Walker1215.6Available
Tacko Fall517.8Available
Adem Bona—14.8Out
Dominick Barlow—15.9Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Bucks76ers
135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Bucks

1 listed

  • Tyler Herro G

    Out

    Herro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.

76ers

3 listed

  • Adem Bona C

    Out

    Bona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Dominick Barlow F

    Out

    Head coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.

  • Ariel Hukporti C

    Out

    Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILPHI
Against the spread3–86–5
Last 103–75–5
Favorite0–13–4
Underdog3–73–1
Overs–unders5–65–6
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 7–5 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.