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Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast

Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Away

Suns

4-6

70%

at

Home

Kings

1-10

30%

The pick
PHX · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
117–111
Fair odds
-236

Your pick

Golden 1 Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Suns at 70%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Suns rate higher (1491 to 1352 Elo), the Kings have home court and lineup changes favor the Kings.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Suns

Now 33%

35%

with a win

29%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

Kings

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Suns 70%

Strong
PHX 70%SAC 30%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHX 70%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHX -2.5
PHX 61%
Fair odds
PHX -236
SAC +236 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHX 117.4 – 110.9 SAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHXSACWhy
Team rating14911352Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−10+18PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPHX +75 EloPHX 60.6%
Market-implied ratingsPHX 71.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHX 70.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings compared, with each team's league rank
PHXStatSAC
16th of 30112.8Points scored108.324th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed121.027th of 30
22nd of 30−5.3Margin−12.728th of 30
16th of 30111.9Offense rating106.024th of 30
27th of 30117.2Defense rating118.428th of 30
23rd of 30100.5Pace102.26th of 30
27th of 300–3Road vs home0–627th of 30
1st of 301559Opponent Elo151712th of 30
17th of 301491Elo rating135227th of 30
20th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted−2.727th of 30
17th of 30−0.7Defense, adjusted−4.028th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Suns

−10 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Devin Booker3124.0Available
Dillon Brooks2715.8Available
Miles Bridges2519.7Available
Jalen Green2518.4Available
Collin Gillespie2217.7Available
Oso Ighodaro2015.9Available
Ryan Dunn1914.4Available
Khaman Maluach1817.4Available
Luke Kennard1716.9Available
Jordan Goodwin1617.3Available
Pat Spencer615.7Available
Rasheer Fleming416.8Available

Kings

+18 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Acuff Jr.3617.3Available
De'Andre Hunter3216.6Available
Domantas Sabonis3123.4Available
Zach LaVine3017.6Available
Keegan Murray2514.6Available
Dylan Cardwell2116.7Available
Leaky Black1912.9Available
Emanuel Sharp1815.4Available
Malik Monk1517.4Available
Daeqwon Plowden712.9Available
Maxime Raynaud—15.8Out
Precious Achiuwa—15.7Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SunsKings
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Suns

1 listed

  • Mark Williams C

    Out

    Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Kings

3 listed

  • Precious Achiuwa F

    Out

    Achiuwa left Tuesday's 107-100 loss to the Magic with a left lower leg contusion and did not return, Matt George of ABC 10 Sacramento reports.

  • Maxime Raynaud C

    Out

    Raynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.

  • Ben Simmons G

    Out

    Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHXSAC
Against the spread2–74–5
Last 102–74–5
Favorite2–1—
Underdog0–64–5
Overs–unders6–34–5
Overs–unders, last 106–34–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHX 8–5 SAC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 13.