Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Celtics at 60%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Celtics rate higher (1650 to 1542 Elo), the Nuggets have home court and lineup changes favor the Nuggets.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Celtics
Now 100%
100%
with a win
100%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Nuggets
Now 80%
82%
with a win
79%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Celtics 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1.5
- BOS 56%
- Fair odds
- BOS -148
- DEN +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BOS 113.2 – 110.2 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1650 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +19 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +42 Elo | BOS 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 113.615th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.0 | Points allowed | 112.814th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | +0.817th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 114.19th of 30 |
| 6th of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 113.323rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 26th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 150815th of 30 |
| 4th of 301650 | Elo rating | 154211th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.4 | Offense, adjusted | +1.97th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+5.5 | Defense, adjusted | 0.015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Celtics
−11 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 31 | 28.8 | Available |
| Paul George | 28 | 21.2 | Available |
| Derrick White | 27 | 21.8 | Available |
| Payton Pritchard | 26 | 22.9 | Available |
| Neemias Queta | 21 | 24.0 | Available |
| Sam Hauser | 20 | 18.9 | Available |
| Baylor Scheierman | 19 | 16.6 | Available |
| Mitchell Robinson | 17 | 20.5 | Available |
| Jordan Walsh | 15 | 15.4 | Available |
| Hugo Gonzalez | 14 | 16.7 | Available |
| Luka Garza | 12 | 22.5 | Available |
Nuggets
+19 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 33 | 26.6 | Available |
| Nikola Jokic | 33 | 36.5 | Available |
| Christian Braun | 29 | 19.1 | Available |
| Cameron Johnson | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Aaron Gordon | 26 | 22.3 | Available |
| DeMar DeRozan | 20 | 19.3 | Available |
| Spencer Jones | 19 | 12.9 | Available |
| Trevon Brazile | 16 | 18.0 | Available |
| Marvin Bagley III | 12 | 19.3 | Available |
| Tyus Jones | 8 | 14.4 | Available |
| Bryce Hopkins | 6 | 16.9 | Available |
| Ryan Nembhard | 4 | 16.2 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Celtics
Nothing on the injury report.
Nuggets
1 listedJulian Strawther G
OutStrawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–4 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.