Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Pistons at 63%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Pistons rate higher (1612 to 1421 Elo), the Pistons are on a back-to-back and lineup changes favor the Pelicans.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Pistons
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Pelicans
Now 2%
2%
with a win
2%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Pistons 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Fair odds
- DET -173
- NO +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DET 116.0 – 111.8 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | +16 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −32, Isaiah Joe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DET +78 Elo | DET 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 117.58th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Points allowed | 122.429th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+8.1 | Margin | −4.920th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 111.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.2 | Defense rating | 115.826th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–1 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 146128th of 30 |
| 7th of 301612 | Elo rating | 142123rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Offense, adjusted | +1.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+4.7 | Defense, adjusted | −4.729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Pistons
−21 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 33 | 26.8 | Available |
| Duncan Robinson | 31 | 19.2 | Available |
| Daniss Jenkins | 28 | 19.4 | Available |
| Ausar Thompson | 27 | 20.2 | Available |
| John Collins | 26 | 19.0 | Available |
| Kevin Huerter | 25 | 17.8 | Available |
| Paul Reed | 24 | 23.7 | Available |
| Javonte Green | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Ronald Holland II | 15 | 16.2 | Available |
| Elijah Harkless | 8 | 14.9 | Available |
| Jalen Duren | — | 26.6 | Out−32 |
| Isaiah Joe | — | 21.5 | Out−5 |
Pelicans
+16 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 31 | 26.3 | Available |
| Jeremiah Fears | 30 | 16.8 | Available |
| Dejounte Murray | 28 | 19.6 | Available |
| Saddiq Bey | 26 | 18.5 | Available |
| Herbert Jones | 22 | 13.8 | Available |
| Derik Queen | 20 | 17.2 | Available |
| Trey Murphy III | 19 | 19.7 | Day-To-Day−7 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 18 | 17.5 | Available |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 15 | 17.3 | Available |
| Jordan Poole | 12 | 15.0 | Available |
| Bryce McGowens | 10 | 13.0 | Available |
| Julian Reese | 5 | 15.4 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Pistons
2 listedIsaiah Joe G
OutJoe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards.
Jalen Duren C
OutDuren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports.
Pelicans
3 listedTrendon Watford F
OutWatford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Trey Murphy III F
Day-To-DayMurphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.
Yves Missi C
OutMissi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–2 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.