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Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast

Away

76ers

9-3

61%

at

Home

Magic

3-7

39%

The pick
PHI · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
112–109
Fair odds
-155

Your pick

Kia Center

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 76ers at 61%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the 76ers, the Magic have home court and the 76ers rate higher (1511 to 1476 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

76ers

Now 90%

91%

with a win

87%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Magic

Now 44%

48%

with a win

42%

with a loss

This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

76ers 61%

Lean
PHI 61%ORL 39%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHI 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI -3
PHI 63%
Fair odds
PHI -155
ORL +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHI 112.5 – 109.1 ORL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHIORLWhy
Team rating15111476Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+63−28PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −33, Jalen Suggs −4, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPHI +89 EloPHI 62.6%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 60.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 60.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatORL
23rd of 30110.2Points scored107.026th of 30
8th of 30109.2Points allowed114.618th of 30
16th of 30+1.0Margin−7.624th of 30
22nd of 30108.5Offense rating105.825th of 30
8th of 30107.5Defense rating113.322nd of 30
16th of 30101.4Pace100.225th of 30
3rd of 305–1Road vs home0–427th of 30
8th of 301521Opponent Elo15237th of 30
15th of 301511Elo rating147619th of 30
22nd of 30−1.0Offense, adjusted−2.326th of 30
9th of 30+1.4Defense, adjusted+0.414th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

76ers

+63 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Tyrese Maxey3424.4Available
VJ Edgecombe3217.2Available
Jaylen Brown3225.5Available
LeBron James3125.1Available
Joel Embiid2929.6Available
Dean Wade2115.3Available
Anfernee Simons1817.5Available
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope1813.8Available
Jabari Walker1215.6Available
Tacko Fall517.8Available
Adem Bona—14.8Out
Dominick Barlow—15.9Out

Magic

−28 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Franz Wagner3823.5Available
Desmond Bane3720.4Available
Wendell Carter Jr.3517.2Available
Anthony Black3316.1Available
Jamal Cain2413.5Available
Jase Richardson2314.8Available
Alex Morales1516.7Available
Nikola Vucevic1220.5Available
Goga Bitadze1019.7Available
Jevon Carter914.2Available
Colin Castleton415.4Available
Paolo Banchero—22.6Out−33

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

76ersMagic
135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

76ers

3 listed

  • Adem Bona C

    Out

    Bona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Dominick Barlow F

    Out

    Head coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.

  • Ariel Hukporti C

    Out

    Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Magic

6 listed

  • Tristan da Silva F

    Out

    Da Silva (calf) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Jalen Suggs G

    Out

    Suggs (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings.

  • Jonathan Isaac F

    Out

    Isaac (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against Sacramento.

  • Paolo Banchero F

    Out

    Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Noah Penda F

    Out

    Penda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Izaiyah Nelson F

    Out

    Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHIORL
Against the spread6–52–5
Last 105–52–5
Favorite3–41–3
Underdog3–11–2
Overs–unders5–63–4
Overs–unders, last 105–53–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 6–4 ORL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.