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Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast

Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Away

Suns

4-6

28%

at

Home

Nuggets

5-4

72%

The pick
DEN · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
111–118
Fair odds
-254

Your pick

Ball Arena · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Nuggets at 72%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Nuggets rate higher (1542 to 1491 Elo), the Suns are on a back-to-back and the Nuggets have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Suns

Now 33%

38%

with a win

31%

with a loss

This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.

Nuggets

Now 80%

81%

with a win

77%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Nuggets 72%

Strong
PHX 28%DEN 72%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DEN 72%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DEN -5.5
DEN 71%
Fair odds
DEN -254
PHX +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHX 110.9 – 118.0 DEN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHXDENWhy
Team rating14911542Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—PHX on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−10+19PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDEN +156 EloDEN 71.1%
Market-implied ratingsDEN 71.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDEN 71.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets compared, with each team's league rank
PHXStatDEN
16th of 30112.8Points scored113.615th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed112.814th of 30
22nd of 30−5.3Margin+0.817th of 30
16th of 30111.9Offense rating114.19th of 30
27th of 30117.2Defense rating113.323rd of 30
23rd of 30100.5Pace98.227th of 30
27th of 300–3Road vs home2–214th of 30
1st of 301559Opponent Elo150815th of 30
17th of 301491Elo rating154211th of 30
20th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted+1.97th of 30
17th of 30−0.7Defense, adjusted0.015th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Suns

−10 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Devin Booker3124.0Available
Dillon Brooks2715.8Available
Miles Bridges2519.7Available
Jalen Green2518.4Available
Collin Gillespie2217.7Available
Oso Ighodaro2015.9Available
Ryan Dunn1914.4Available
Khaman Maluach1817.4Available
Luke Kennard1716.9Available
Jordan Goodwin1617.3Available
Pat Spencer615.7Available
Rasheer Fleming416.8Available

Nuggets

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jamal Murray3326.6Available
Nikola Jokic3336.5Available
Christian Braun2919.1Available
Cameron Johnson2718.9Available
Aaron Gordon2622.3Available
DeMar DeRozan2019.3Available
Spencer Jones1912.9Available
Trevon Brazile1618.0Available
Marvin Bagley III1219.3Available
Tyus Jones814.4Available
Bryce Hopkins616.9Available
Ryan Nembhard416.2Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SunsNuggets
1400145015001550160016501700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Suns

1 listed

  • Mark Williams C

    Out

    Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Nuggets

1 listed

  • Julian Strawther G

    Out

    Strawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHXDEN
Against the spread2–73–5
Last 102–73–5
Favorite2–13–3
Underdog0–60–2
Overs–unders6–34–4
Overs–unders, last 106–34–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHX 3–8 DEN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.