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Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast

NBCSN

Away

Magic

3-7

24%

at

Home

Celtics

9-2

76%

The pick
BOS · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
105–114
Fair odds
-323

Your pick

TD Garden · NBCSN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Celtics at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Celtics rate higher (1650 to 1476 Elo), the Celtics are on a back-to-back and the Celtics have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Magic

Now 44%

47%

with a win

43%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Celtics

Now 100%

100%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Celtics 76%

Strong
ORL 24%BOS 76%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -6.5
BOS 74%
Fair odds
BOS -323
ORL +323 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ORL 105.0 – 113.9 BOS
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorORLBOSWhy
Team rating14761650Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40BOS on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−28−11ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −33, Jalen Suggs −4, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsBOS +186 EloBOS 74.5%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 76.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 76.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics compared, with each team's league rank
ORLStatBOS
26th of 30107.0Points scored115.711th of 30
18th of 30114.6Points allowed104.02nd of 30
24th of 30−7.6Margin+11.71st of 30
25th of 30105.8Offense rating117.53rd of 30
22nd of 30113.3Defense rating105.56th of 30
25th of 30100.2Pace97.729th of 30
12th of 303–3Road vs home5–01st of 30
7th of 301523Opponent Elo146826th of 30
19th of 301476Elo rating16504th of 30
26th of 30−2.3Offense, adjusted+0.416th of 30
14th of 30+0.4Defense, adjusted+5.52nd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Magic

−28 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Franz Wagner3823.5Available
Desmond Bane3720.4Available
Wendell Carter Jr.3517.2Available
Anthony Black3316.1Available
Jamal Cain2413.5Available
Jase Richardson2314.8Available
Alex Morales1516.7Available
Nikola Vucevic1220.5Available
Goga Bitadze1019.7Available
Jevon Carter914.2Available
Colin Castleton415.4Available
Paolo Banchero—22.6Out−33

Celtics

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jayson Tatum3128.8Available
Paul George2821.2Available
Derrick White2721.8Available
Payton Pritchard2622.9Available
Neemias Queta2124.0Available
Sam Hauser2018.9Available
Baylor Scheierman1916.6Available
Mitchell Robinson1720.5Available
Jordan Walsh1515.4Available
Hugo Gonzalez1416.7Available
Luka Garza1222.5Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MagicCeltics
1400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Magic

6 listed

  • Tristan da Silva F

    Out

    Da Silva (calf) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Jalen Suggs G

    Out

    Suggs (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings.

  • Jonathan Isaac F

    Out

    Isaac (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against Sacramento.

  • Paolo Banchero F

    Out

    Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Noah Penda F

    Out

    Penda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Izaiyah Nelson F

    Out

    Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.

Celtics

Nothing on the injury report.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonORLBOS
Against the spread2–55–5
Last 102–55–5
Favorite1–35–4
Underdog1–20–1
Overs–unders3–45–5
Overs–unders, last 103–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ORL 5–11 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.