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Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Mavericks

7-4

45%

at

Home

Suns

4-6

55%

The pick
PHX · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
114–115
Fair odds
-122

Your pick

Mortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Suns at 55%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Mavericks, the Suns have home court and the Suns rate higher (1491 to 1468 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Mavericks

Now 17%

18%

with a win

16%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Suns

Now 33%

35%

with a win

30%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Suns 55%

Toss-up
DAL 45%PHX 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHX 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHX -0.5
PHX 52%
Fair odds
PHX -122
DAL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DAL 113.6 – 115.1 PHX
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALPHXWhy
Team rating14681491Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+38−10DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPHX +11 EloPHX 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsPHX 55.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHX 54.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatPHX
14th of 30114.9Points scored112.816th of 30
9th of 30110.3Points allowed118.124th of 30
12th of 30+4.6Margin−5.322nd of 30
11th of 30113.3Offense rating111.916th of 30
10th of 30108.8Defense rating117.227th of 30
20th of 30100.8Pace100.523rd of 30
12th of 302–2Road vs home4–313th of 30
19th of 301493Opponent Elo15591st of 30
20th of 301468Elo rating149117th of 30
12th of 30+0.8Offense, adjusted−0.320th of 30
18th of 30−0.9Defense, adjusted−0.717th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cooper Flagg3322.5Available
P.J. Washington3115.2Available
Kyrie Irving3125.2Available
Naji Marshall2117.5Available
Daniel Gafford2021.6Available
Santi Aldama2018.9Available
Walter Clayton Jr.1914.3Available
Zaccharie Risacher1815.7Available
Caleb Martin1711.6Available
Max Christie1312.4Available
Morez Johnson Jr.918.5Day-To-Day−2
Marcus Sasser516.9Available

Suns

−10 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Devin Booker3124.0Available
Dillon Brooks2715.8Available
Miles Bridges2519.7Available
Jalen Green2518.4Available
Collin Gillespie2217.7Available
Oso Ighodaro2015.9Available
Ryan Dunn1914.4Available
Khaman Maluach1817.4Available
Luke Kennard1716.9Available
Jordan Goodwin1617.3Available
Pat Spencer615.7Available
Rasheer Fleming416.8Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksSuns
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Mavericks

4 listed

  • Morez Johnson Jr. F

    Day-To-Day

    Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.

  • Sergio de Larrea F

    Out

    De Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.

  • Tarik Biberovic F

    Out

    Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.

  • Dereck Lively II C

    Out

    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.

Suns

1 listed

  • Mark Williams C

    Out

    Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALPHX
Against the spread7–32–7
Last 107–32–7
Favorite2–12–1
Underdog5–20–6
Overs–unders2–86–3
Overs–unders, last 102–86–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 3–7 PHX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.