Miami Heat at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Knicks at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Knicks rate higher (1658 to 1460 Elo), lineup changes favor the Heat and the Knicks have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Heat
Now 70%
73%
with a win
68%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Knicks
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Knicks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 76%
- Fair odds
- NY -204
- MIA +204 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIA 110.1 – 115.5 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −8 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Josh Hart −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NY +198 Elo | NY 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 110.622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 102.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−4.3 | Margin | +8.36th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 113.410th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 104.93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 147524th of 30 |
| 21st of 301460 | Elo rating | 16582nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.5 | Offense, adjusted | −0.421st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−3.7 | Defense, adjusted | +6.91st of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Heat
+28 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 35 | 16.4 | Available |
| Bam Adebayo | 33 | 24.0 | Available |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | 35.0 | Available |
| Pelle Larsson | 28 | 16.9 | Available |
| Klay Thompson | 26 | 15.9 | Available |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24 | 17.4 | Available |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Ryan Conwell | 16 | 16.9 | Available |
| Keshad Johnson | 10 | 20.4 | Available |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 8 | 16.4 | Available |
Knicks
−8 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 33 | 27.4 | Available |
| OG Anunoby | 32 | 21.7 | Available |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 31 | 28.0 | Available |
| Landry Shamet | 27 | 16.3 | Available |
| Mikal Bridges | 24 | 18.5 | Available |
| Miles McBride | 19 | 17.9 | Available |
| Andre Drummond | 14 | 17.7 | Available |
| Tyler Kolek | 12 | 19.2 | Available |
| Jordan Clarkson | 12 | 18.0 | Available |
| Mohamed Diawara | 11 | 16.4 | Available |
| Jose Alvarado | 8 | 16.6 | Available |
| Dalton Knecht | 6 | 14.9 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Heat
Nothing on the injury report.
Knicks
1 listedJosh Hart G
OutHart (illness) won't play Tuesday against the Bucks, Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–9 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–7 NY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 21MIA 125 @ NY 132Picked NY 71%Hit
- Nov 17NY 113 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 50%Hit
- Nov 14MIA 132 @ NY 140Picked NY 68%Hit
- Oct 26NY 107 @ MIA 115Picked NY 57%Miss
- Mar 17MIA 95 @ NY 116Picked NY 71%Hit
- Mar 2NY 116 @ MIA 112Picked NY 68%Hit
- Oct 30NY 116 @ MIA 107Picked NY 53%Hit
- Apr 2NY 99 @ MIA 109Picked MIA 52%Hit