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Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Nets

2-8

53%

at

Home

Bucks

1-10

47%

The pick
BKN · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
112–111
Fair odds
-112

Your pick

Fiserv Forum · DAZN (YES), MyMi, Bucks App

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Nets at 53%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Nets, the Bucks have home court and the Bucks rate higher (1360 to 1335 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Nets

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Bucks

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Nets 53%

Toss-up
BKN 53%MIL 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BKN 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BKN -0.5
BKN 52%
Fair odds
BKN -112
MIL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
BKN 112.1 – 111.2 MIL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBKNMILWhy
Team rating13351360Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+38−38BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsBKN +15 EloBKN 52.2%
Market-implied ratingsBKN 52.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBKN 52.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks compared, with each team's league rank
BKNStatMIL
27th of 30106.7Points scored106.329th of 30
21st of 30115.7Points allowed121.228th of 30
25th of 30−9.0Margin−14.929th of 30
28th of 30104.1Offense rating105.027th of 30
19th of 30112.9Defense rating119.729th of 30
14th of 30101.5Pace101.117th of 30
25th of 301–5Road vs home1–525th of 30
10th of 301519Opponent Elo15325th of 30
28th of 301335Elo rating136026th of 30
29th of 30−4.7Offense, adjusted−3.828th of 30
20th of 30−1.4Defense, adjusted−3.725th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Nets

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Michael Porter Jr.3120.2Available
Julius Randle3121.3Available
Day'Ron Sharpe2320.6Available
Mikel Brown Jr.2016.5Available
Danny Wolf1914.1Available
Noah Clowney1611.0Available
Moritz Wagner1619.9Available
Chaney Johnson1614.1Available
Keon Ellis1513.5Available
Nolan Traore1312.5Day-To-Day
Ben Saraf1311.5Available
Terance Mann1312.4Available

Bucks

−38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Kyle Kuzma2813.9Available
Myles Turner2816.7Available
Jaime Jaquez Jr.2718.9Available
Brayden Burries2616.1Available
Ryan Rollins2318.0Available
AJ Green1912.2Available
Nate Ament1916.0Available
Kasparas Jakucionis1815.5Available
Kel'el Ware1720.0Available
Ousmane Dieng1312.5Available
Jericho Sims1012.9Available
Gary Trent Jr.512.5Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NetsBucks
1250135014501550league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Nets

3 listed

  • Nolan Traore G

    Day-To-Day

    Traore (calf) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.

  • Egor Demin G

    Out

    Demin (leg) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Grant Nelson F

    Day-To-Day

    Nelson signed a two-way contract with the Nets on Friday, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.

Bucks

1 listed

  • Tyler Herro G

    Out

    Herro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBKNMIL
Against the spread4–33–8
Last 104–33–7
Favorite0–10–1
Underdog4–23–7
Overs–unders3–45–6
Overs–unders, last 103–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BKN 5–6 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.