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Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Rockets

8-3

56%

at

Home

Nuggets

5-4

44%

The pick
HOU · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
113–111
Fair odds
-126

Your pick

Ball Arena · Prime Video

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rockets at 56%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Rockets rate higher (1604 to 1542 Elo) and the Nuggets have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Rockets

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Nuggets

Now 80%

83%

with a win

78%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Rockets 56%

Lean
HOU 56%DEN 44%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
HOU 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU -1
HOU 53%
Fair odds
HOU -126
DEN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
HOU 112.8 – 111.1 DEN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUDENWhy
Team rating16041542Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+16+19HOU: Missing Steven Adams −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsHOU +23 EloHOU 53.3%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 56.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 55.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatDEN
13th of 30115.5Points scored113.615th of 30
5th of 30106.4Points allowed112.814th of 30
5th of 30+9.1Margin+0.817th of 30
6th of 30116.6Offense rating114.19th of 30
7th of 30107.4Defense rating113.323rd of 30
26th of 3099.0Pace98.227th of 30
10th of 303–2Road vs home2–214th of 30
2nd of 301544Opponent Elo150815th of 30
8th of 301604Elo rating154211th of 30
17th of 300.0Offense, adjusted+1.97th of 30
6th of 30+4.6Defense, adjusted0.015th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Rockets

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jabari Smith Jr.3518.6Available
Alperen Sengun3325.7Available
Kevin Durant3325.9Available
Amen Thompson3222.5Available
Fred VanVleet2919.7Available
Tari Eason2219.1Available
Marcus Smart1916.1Available
Reed Sheppard1918.7Available
Bogdan Bogdanovic817.0Available
Oscar Tshiebwe520.0Available
Steven Adams—20.9Out−1
Clint Capela—20.5Out

Nuggets

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jamal Murray3326.6Available
Nikola Jokic3336.5Available
Christian Braun2919.1Available
Cameron Johnson2718.9Available
Aaron Gordon2622.3Available
DeMar DeRozan2019.3Available
Spencer Jones1912.9Available
Trevon Brazile1618.0Available
Marvin Bagley III1219.3Available
Tyus Jones814.4Available
Bryce Hopkins616.9Available
Ryan Nembhard416.2Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RocketsNuggets
15001550160016501700NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Rockets

2 listed

  • Clint Capela C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka stated Monday that Capela (ankle) could be cleared to return either Nov. 15 in Washington or Nov. 16 in Miami, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

  • Steven Adams C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday's game at Washington, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

Nuggets

1 listed

  • Julian Strawther G

    Out

    Strawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUDEN
Against the spread8–23–5
Last 108–23–5
Favorite7–23–3
Underdog1–00–2
Overs–unders6–44–4
Overs–unders, last 106–44–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 6–6 DEN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.