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Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Suns

4-6

70%

at

Home

Jazz

1-11

30%

The pick
PHX · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
118–111
Fair odds
-232

Your pick

Delta Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Suns at 70%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Suns rate higher (1491 to 1299 Elo) and the Jazz have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Suns

Now 32%

33%

with a win

28%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

Jazz

Now <1%

0%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Suns 70%

Solid
PHX 70%UTAH 30%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.1% of 390 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHX 70%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHX -6
PHX 72%
Fair odds
PHX -232
UTAH +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHX 117.7 – 111.3 UTAH
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHXUTAHWhy
Team rating14911299Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−9−21PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 · UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −35, Jaren Jackson Jr. −25, Jusuf Nurkic −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12−12PHX crossed 1 time zone and UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsPHX +166 EloPHX 72.3%
Market-implied ratingsPHX 69.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHX 69.9%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz compared, with each team's league rank
PHXStatUTAH
17th of 30112.8Points scored106.629th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed118.123rd of 30
21st of 30−5.3Margin−11.526th of 30
16th of 30111.9Offense rating102.829th of 30
26th of 30117.2Defense rating114.124th of 30
22nd of 30100.5Pace101.710th of 30
27th of 300–3Road vs home1–626th of 30
1st of 301561Opponent Elo151811th of 30
17th of 301491Elo rating129930th of 30
20th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted−2.425th of 30
17th of 30−0.7Defense, adjusted−4.328th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Suns

−9 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Devin Booker3124.0Available
Dillon Brooks2715.8Available
Miles Bridges2519.7Available
Jalen Green2518.5Available
Collin Gillespie2217.7Available
Oso Ighodaro2015.9Available
Ryan Dunn1914.5Available
Khaman Maluach1817.5Available
Luke Kennard1716.9Available
Jordan Goodwin1617.3Available
Pat Spencer615.7Available
Rasheer Fleming416.8Available

Jazz

−21 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Ace Bailey3213.2Available
Keyonte George3217.1Available
Darryn Peterson3116.5Available
Jaxson Hayes2518.1Available
Josh Green2312.2Available
Josh Okogie1913.7Available
Brice Sensabaugh1615.1Available
Svi Mykhailiuk1613.8Available
Isaiah Collier1613.7Available
Mo Bamba1415.9Available
Kyle Filipowski816.7Available
Tony Bradley416.3Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SunsJazz
12001300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Suns

1 listed

  • Mark Williams C

    Out

    Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Jazz

3 listed

  • Lauri Markkanen F

    Out

    Markkanen has been diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture in his right hand and will be sidelined for at least one month, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Jusuf Nurkic C

    Out

    Nurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.

  • Jaren Jackson Jr. F

    Out

    Jackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHXUTAH
Against the spread2–72–9
Last 102–72–8
Favorite2–10–1
Underdog0–62–8
Overs–unders6–32–9
Overs–unders, last 106–32–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHX 10–1 UTAH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.