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Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Pacers

3-8

24%

at

Home

Cavaliers

5-6

76%

The pick
CLE · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
111–119
Fair odds
-313

Your pick

Rocket Arena · DAZN CLE

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Cavaliers at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Cavaliers rate higher (1548 to 1380 Elo), the Cavaliers have home court and lineup changes favor the Pacers.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pacers

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Cavaliers

Now 93%

93%

with a win

91%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Cavaliers 76%

Strong
IND 24%CLE 76%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CLE 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -6
CLE 72%
Fair odds
CLE -313
IND +313 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
IND 110.8 – 119.5 CLE
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDCLEWhy
Team rating13801548Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+19−17IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −50, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsCLE +168 EloCLE 72.4%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 76.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 75.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatCLE
20th of 30111.4Points scored116.510th of 30
20th of 30115.2Points allowed115.019th of 30
18th of 30−3.8Margin+1.515th of 30
21st of 30108.8Offense rating113.313th of 30
18th of 30112.5Defense rating111.815th of 30
8th of 30102.1Pace102.010th of 30
23rd of 282–8Last 105–514th of 28
12th of 303–3Road vs home4–28th of 30
29th of 301442Opponent Elo151513th of 30
24th of 301380Elo rating154810th of 30
23rd of 30−1.2Offense, adjusted+2.16th of 30
23rd of 30−2.3Defense, adjusted−0.516th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Andrew Nembhard3017.2Available
Pascal Siakam3023.3Available
Aaron Nesmith2615.6Available
Quenton Jackson2118.2Available
Jarace Walker1913.2Available
Ivica Zubac1822.8Available
Kelly Oubre Jr.1714.3Available
Obi Toppin1720.1Available
Kobe Brown1413.2Available
Larry Nance Jr.1415.6Available
Braden Smith1317.0Available
Jay Huff917.0Available

Cavaliers

−17 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Donovan Mitchell3128.1Available
James Harden3123.2Available
Evan Mobley3024.4Available
Peyton Watson2516.5Available
Meleek Thomas2217.9Available
Jarrett Allen2226.0Available
Mario Hezonja2017.4Available
Tyrese Proctor1917.5Available
Thomas Bryant1118.9Available
Craig Porter Jr.1117.2Available
Riley Minix718.9Available
Ernest Udeh Jr.517.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersCavaliers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pacers

4 listed

  • T.J. McConnell G

    Day-To-Day

    McConnell is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Wizards due to a strained right hamstring.

  • Tyrese Haliburton G

    Out

    Haliburton (hamstring) is progressing well but does not have a timetable to return, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.

  • Johnny Furphy G

    Out

    Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.

  • Ben Sheppard G

    Out

    Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.

Cavaliers

2 listed

  • Sam Merrill G

    Out

    Merrill (elbow) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against the Knicks.

  • Jaylon Tyson G

    Out

    Tyson (ankle) is questionable to face the Knicks on Wednesday.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDCLE
Against the spread3–42–7
Last 103–42–7
Favorite0–31–5
Underdog3–11–2
Overs–unders2–55–4
Overs–unders, last 102–55–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 9–8 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.