Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Magic

3-7

60%

at

Home

Nets

2-8

40%

The pick
ORL · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
112–109
Fair odds
-149

Your pick

Barclays Center · DAZN (YES)

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Magic at 60%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Magic rate higher (1476 to 1335 Elo), lineup changes favor the Nets and the Nets have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Magic

Now 44%

46%

with a win

42%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Nets

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Magic 60%

Lean
ORL 60%BKN 40%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
ORL 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ORL -1.5
ORL 56%
Fair odds
ORL -149
BKN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ORL 111.9 – 108.8 BKN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorORLBKNWhy
Team rating14761335Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−28+38ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −33, Jalen Suggs −4, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsORL +39 EloORL 55.7%
Market-implied ratingsORL 60.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastORL 59.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Orlando Magic and Brooklyn Nets compared, with each team's league rank
ORLStatBKN
26th of 30107.0Points scored106.727th of 30
18th of 30114.6Points allowed115.721st of 30
24th of 30−7.6Margin−9.025th of 30
25th of 30105.8Offense rating104.128th of 30
22nd of 30113.3Defense rating112.919th of 30
25th of 30100.2Pace101.514th of 30
12th of 303–3Road vs home1–323rd of 30
7th of 301523Opponent Elo151910th of 30
19th of 301476Elo rating133528th of 30
26th of 30−2.3Offense, adjusted−4.729th of 30
14th of 30+0.4Defense, adjusted−1.420th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Magic

−28 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Franz Wagner3823.5Available
Desmond Bane3720.4Available
Wendell Carter Jr.3517.2Available
Anthony Black3316.1Available
Jamal Cain2413.5Available
Jase Richardson2314.8Available
Alex Morales1516.7Available
Nikola Vucevic1220.5Available
Goga Bitadze1019.7Available
Jevon Carter914.2Available
Colin Castleton415.4Available
Paolo Banchero—22.6Out−33

Nets

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Michael Porter Jr.3120.2Available
Julius Randle3121.3Available
Day'Ron Sharpe2320.6Available
Mikel Brown Jr.2016.5Available
Danny Wolf1914.1Available
Noah Clowney1611.0Available
Moritz Wagner1619.9Available
Chaney Johnson1614.1Available
Keon Ellis1513.5Available
Nolan Traore1312.5Day-To-Day
Ben Saraf1311.5Available
Terance Mann1312.4Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MagicNets
1250135014501550league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Magic

6 listed

  • Tristan da Silva F

    Out

    Da Silva (calf) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Jalen Suggs G

    Out

    Suggs (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings.

  • Jonathan Isaac F

    Out

    Isaac (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against Sacramento.

  • Paolo Banchero F

    Out

    Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Noah Penda F

    Out

    Penda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Izaiyah Nelson F

    Out

    Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.

Nets

3 listed

  • Nolan Traore G

    Day-To-Day

    Traore (calf) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.

  • Egor Demin G

    Out

    Demin (leg) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Grant Nelson F

    Day-To-Day

    Nelson signed a two-way contract with the Nets on Friday, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonORLBKN
Against the spread2–54–3
Last 102–54–3
Favorite1–30–1
Underdog1–24–2
Overs–unders3–43–4
Overs–unders, last 103–43–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ORL 9–2 BKN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 11.