Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Hawks at 74%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Hawks, the Hawks rate higher (1522 to 1486 Elo) and the Hawks have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Hornets
Now 33%
36%
with a win
32%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Hawks
Now 92%
93%
with a win
91%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Hawks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -5
- ATL 69%
- Fair odds
- ATL -279
- CHA +279 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CHA 107.8 – 115.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | −11 | CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −26, Brandon Miller (40% to sit) −5, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −36 | −12 | CHA crossed 3 time zones and ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +142 Elo | ATL 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3098.8 | Points scored | 118.35th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 116.222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−11.5 | Margin | +2.114th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.2 | Offense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 110.714th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 20th of 283–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 28 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 146627th of 30 |
| 18th of 301486 | Elo rating | 152213th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.8 | Offense, adjusted | +2.34th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.3 | Defense, adjusted | −1.621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Hornets
−56 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | 31 | 18.8 | Available |
| Grayson Allen | 27 | 18.2 | Available |
| Sion James | 27 | 12.7 | Available |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 23 | 19.8 | Available |
| Royce O'Neale | 22 | 13.4 | Available |
| Coby White | 18 | 20.1 | Available |
| Moussa Diabate | 18 | 19.2 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Brandon Miller | 17 | 19.4 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 16 | 12.3 | Available |
| Christian Anderson | 13 | 15.6 | Available |
| Hannes Steinbach | 11 | 16.1 | Available |
| Liam McNeeley | 10 | 15.7 | Available |
Hawks
−11 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 31 | 23.3 | Available |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 29 | 20.3 | Available |
| Dyson Daniels | 28 | 20.5 | Available |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 28 | 20.7 | Available |
| Aaron Wiggins | 22 | 19.3 | Available |
| CJ McCollum | 22 | 20.1 | Available |
| Luguentz Dort | 22 | 14.2 | Available |
| Kingston Flemings | 21 | 17.1 | Available |
| Jalen Wilson | 12 | 11.6 | Available |
| Jock Landale | 9 | 18.8 | Available |
| Zuby Ejiofor | 6 | 18.4 | Available |
| RayJ Dennis | 5 | 16.0 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Hornets
5 listedBrandon Miller F
Day-To-DayMiller (groin) is listed as out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Moussa Diabate F
Day-To-DayDiabate (quadriceps) has been downgraded to out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Grant Williams F
OutWilliams (hamstring) is out for Monday's game against the Cavaliers.
Kon Knueppel G
OutKnueppel (hamstring) was diagnosed with a left hamstring strain Sunday and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Dennis Schroder G
OutSchroder has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.
Hawks
4 listedAsa Newell F
OutNewell (toe) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.
Keshon Gilbert G
OutGilbert (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.
Mouhamed Gueye F
OutGueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.
Henri Veesaar C
OutVeesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 6–7 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
- Oct 23ATL 128 @ CHA 81Picked ATL 56%Hit
- Feb 11ATL 107 @ CHA 110Picked CHA 54%Hit
- Feb 7CHA 126 @ ATL 119Picked CHA 53%Hit
- Dec 18ATL 126 @ CHA 133Picked ATL 62%Miss
- Nov 23CHA 110 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 72%Hit
- Mar 18ATL 134 @ CHA 102Picked ATL 74%Hit
- Mar 12CHA 110 @ ATL 123Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Nov 30ATL 107 @ CHA 104Picked ATL 66%Hit