San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Avalanche at 71%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Avalanche rate higher (1568 to 1437 Elo) and the Avalanche have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Sharks
Now 8%
10%
with a win
7%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
Avalanche
Now 94%
95%
with a win
92%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Avalanche 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 72%
- Fair odds
- COL -246
- SJ +246 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SJ 2.6 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | COL and SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | SJ: Starter not announced · COL: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | COL +166 Elo | COL 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 71.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +1.05th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 52.6%9th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%14th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–7 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 32 |
| 30th of 321437 | Elo rating | 15682nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Sharks
3 listedIgor Chernyshov LW
Injured Reserveir
Quentin Musty LW
Injured ReserveMusty (upper body) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday, according to Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News.
Kyle Keyser G
Injured ReserveKeyser (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by the Sharks on Monday, Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Avalanche
2 listedJosh Manson D
Injured Reserveir
Zachary L'Heureux LW
Injured Reserveir-lt
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–12 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–8 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.