New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Flyers at 54%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Flyers have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Islanders
Now 26%
29%
with a win
24%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Flyers
Now 7%
8%
with a win
5%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- NYI +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NYI 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PHI and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | NYI: Starter not announced · PHI: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.331st of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.030th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 45.3%30th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%17th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–730th of 32 |
| 21st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15136th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321475 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Islanders
5 listedMatias Maccelli LW
Injured ReserveMaccelli (lower body) is day-to-day, according to Andrew Gross of Newsday on Monday.
Mathew Barzal C
Injured ReserveBarzal (knee) won't be in the lineup against the Sharks on Monday but has been upgraded to day-to-day, Andrew Gross of Newsday reports.
Ryan Pulock D
Outout
Calum Ritchie C
Injured Reserveir
Alexander Romanov D
Injured Reserveir
Flyers
2 listedRasmus Ristolainen D
Injured ReserveRistolainen (hand) was placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24, on Tuesday.
Nikita Grebenkin RW
Injured ReserveGrebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–6 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.